Friday, 17 August 2012

GRAINS-Wheat up on Russian supply woes, but faces 4th week of declines

Fri Aug 17, 2012
* Wheat rises for 3rd day on Russian supply concerns

* Soybeans weighed down by forecasts of Midwest rains

* Wheat faces 4th week of decline; soy, corn down

By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Aug 17 (Reuters)
- U.S. wheat rose for a third straight session on Friday on renewed concerns of reduced supplies from Russia, although the market is still facing a fourth straight week of declines as a drought-driven rally in grain markets loses momentum.

New-crop soybeans eased for a second consecutive day, weighed down by forecasts of rain in the U.S. Midwest next week that could help the late planted crop.

"There are forecasts of rains in the U.S. Midwest which should provide much-needed moisture for the soybean crop," said Ker Chung Yang, commodities analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "For the wheat market, there is some support from expectations of export curbs in Russia."

U.S. grain and oilseed futures have retreated in recent weeks as investors ascertain how much demand has been reduced by a rally in grain prices to record highs last month.

Front-month wheat has lost 2.3 percent this week, on track for a fourth straight week of losses, while soybeans have given up 3.4 percent, down for three out of four weeks.

Corn has slipped by about half a percent this week after declining 1.2 percent last week, with losses limited by tight global supplies.

On Friday, Chicago Board of Trade new-crop November soybeans had fallen 0.2 percent to $16.22-1/4 per bushel by 0220 GMT, while December corn was down 0.3 percent at $8.05 per bushel. September wheat added 0.4 percent to $8.85-1/2 per bushel.

Wheat futures have been supported by news from Russia's SovEcon consultancy that Russian grain stocks at farms stood at 15.73 million tonnes as of Aug. 1 -- the lowest level since 2006. Wheat stocks also fell to 10.61 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2003.

Russian grain stocks are down 18 percent year-on-year, while wheat stocks are down 30 percent after sales volumes increased by 60 percent.

The data renewed worries that Russia would take steps to limit grain exports. The stock figures followed two purchases in the past week by Egypt that traders said showed the determination of the world's largest wheat buyer to secure competitively priced Russian grain before a small export surplus runs out.

The drought-stricken U.S. Midwest crop region has a better chance for rain next week than earlier forecasts indicated, an agricultural meteorologist said.

"The biggest change is for improved rainfall amounts next week starting at mid-week. Most of the Midwest will receive some rains of 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with local areas getting up to 3.00 inches," said Andy Karst, a meteorologist for World Weather Inc. "Previously it looked like 0.25 to 0.75 inch."

After weeks of relentless heat stress from the worst U.S. drought in more than half a century, deteriorating corn and soybean crops have received some relief with light rains during the past few days.

Traders are also analysing acreage data from the U.S. Farm Service Agency, part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, that some said implied an increase in U.S. soybean planted acreage compared with the USDA's June 30 official forecast of 76.1 million acres.

Commodity funds bought an estimated net 6,000 contracts of CBOT corn futures on Thursday, trade sources said. They sold 4,000 soybean contracts and bought 3,000 wheat contracts.

  Prices at  0220 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  MA 30   RSI
  CBOT wheat     885.50     3.75  +0.43%   873.93   48
  CBOT corn      805.00    -2.50  -0.31%   768.74   49
  CBOT soy      1622.25    -3.00  -0.18%  1584.62   46
  CBOT rice      $15.26   -$0.06  -0.42%   $15.48   37
  WTI crude      $95.38   -$0.22  -0.23%   $89.16   75
  Currencies                                               
  Euro/dlr       $1.235   $0.006  +0.52%  
  USD/AUD         1.051   -0.005  -0.44%  
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential

(Editing by Chris Lewis)

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