16th Aug 2012, by Agrimoney
US growers lifted corn and soybean plantings more than published data show, according to analysis of farmers returns to agricultural support officials, which signals total crop sowings some 3m acres higher.
Data compiled by the Farm Services Agency, which handles US Department of Agriculture disaster assistance, farm loan and conservation programmes, shows a 74.9m-acre number for soybean sowings, with a further 159,000 acres on top which growers were thwarted from sowing.
For corn, area was pegged at 92.9m acres, with farmers not making it onto a further 255,000 acres intended for planting.
While the data are at face value lower than the USDA official numbers - of 76.1m acres for soybeans and a 75-year high of 96.4m acres for corn - adjusted for non-reporting analysts said they actually signalled higher figures.
Planned vs actual
"We can expect a difference. But normally out numbers are lower than the Wasde numbers," an FSA spokesman told Agrimoney.com.
"Wasde numbers are survey numbers based on the entire universe" of US growers.
"Our numbers are actual numbers, but only for famers participating in our programmes," which while representing the great majority of growers, does not cover all.
In August 2011, for instance, FSA data showed corn area 3.6m acres below the final total, and soybean plantings 1.8m acres short.
Some, particularly largely farmers, chose not to enrol, said Don Roose, president of broker US Commodities said, supporting the credibility of the FSA data, in being based on real rather than survey results.
"These are the numbers you should be working with," if on an adjusted basis, Mr Roose said.
Conspiracy theory
Investors Agrimoney.com spoke to said that the FSA data implied sowings of an extra 1.2m acres for soybeans, and 500,000 acres for corn.
Indeed, the data provoked a theory that the extra sowings were behind a relatively low abandonment rate kept in the last Wasde report despite a sharp deterioration in crops, and with farmers seen likely to chop for fodder, or plough in, soybean fields seen likely to yield below 10 bushels per acre.
"That's what people are saying, although I can't see why the USDA would do that," Michael Cordonnier, at Soybean and Corn Advisor, told Agrimoney.com.
"If the USDA had the data, why not just use it?"
At broker Country Futures, Darrell Holaday, noting that the FSA report "indicated that planted acres of corn and soybeans were higher" than official USDA numbers said: "We have said many times that USDA has not picked up the total increase in planted acreage."
US growers lifted corn and soybean plantings more than published data show, according to analysis of farmers returns to agricultural support officials, which signals total crop sowings some 3m acres higher.
Data compiled by the Farm Services Agency, which handles US Department of Agriculture disaster assistance, farm loan and conservation programmes, shows a 74.9m-acre number for soybean sowings, with a further 159,000 acres on top which growers were thwarted from sowing.
For corn, area was pegged at 92.9m acres, with farmers not making it onto a further 255,000 acres intended for planting.
While the data are at face value lower than the USDA official numbers - of 76.1m acres for soybeans and a 75-year high of 96.4m acres for corn - adjusted for non-reporting analysts said they actually signalled higher figures.
Planned vs actual
"We can expect a difference. But normally out numbers are lower than the Wasde numbers," an FSA spokesman told Agrimoney.com.
"Wasde numbers are survey numbers based on the entire universe" of US growers.
"Our numbers are actual numbers, but only for famers participating in our programmes," which while representing the great majority of growers, does not cover all.
In August 2011, for instance, FSA data showed corn area 3.6m acres below the final total, and soybean plantings 1.8m acres short.
Some, particularly largely farmers, chose not to enrol, said Don Roose, president of broker US Commodities said, supporting the credibility of the FSA data, in being based on real rather than survey results.
"These are the numbers you should be working with," if on an adjusted basis, Mr Roose said.
Conspiracy theory
Investors Agrimoney.com spoke to said that the FSA data implied sowings of an extra 1.2m acres for soybeans, and 500,000 acres for corn.
Indeed, the data provoked a theory that the extra sowings were behind a relatively low abandonment rate kept in the last Wasde report despite a sharp deterioration in crops, and with farmers seen likely to chop for fodder, or plough in, soybean fields seen likely to yield below 10 bushels per acre.
"That's what people are saying, although I can't see why the USDA would do that," Michael Cordonnier, at Soybean and Corn Advisor, told Agrimoney.com.
"If the USDA had the data, why not just use it?"
At broker Country Futures, Darrell Holaday, noting that the FSA report "indicated that planted acres of corn and soybeans were higher" than official USDA numbers said: "We have said many times that USDA has not picked up the total increase in planted acreage."
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