Thu Aug 23, 2012
* Soybean pod counts down about 21 pct from average -crop tour
* Tour estimates Illinois corn yield at lowest since 1995
* Soybean production forecast at 8-year low - Reuters poll
* Dalian January soybeans hit record top
By Colin Packham
SYDNEY, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Chicago soybeans hit a contract high on Thursday, rising for a fourth session out of five, after a group of experts painted a bleak supply picture for the crop that has been scorched by the worst drought across the U.S. Midwest in 56 years.
Corn also edged up after yields in Illinois were pegged at their lowest in 17 years by the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. Wheat dipped on better U.S. planting conditions and forecasts for a big Canadian wheat crop.
"The market has largely factored in the damage that has been done to the corn crop, which obviously was harvested a bit earlier than the soybean crop, so we are seeing downgrades to that soybean crop pushing the oilseed higher," said Graydon Chong, a senior grains and oilseeds analyst at Rabobank.
Chicago Board Of Trade November soybeans rose 0.5 percent to $17.36-1/2 per bushel by 0511 GMT, hovering below a record top of $17.44-3/4 per bushel hit earlier in the session.
The most actively traded Dalian Commodity Exchange January soybeans also hit a contract top of 4,945 yuan a tonne.
The annual crop tour estimated soybean pod counts were about 21 percent below average in Illinois, the No. 2 growing state for the crop, with the poorest counts in the central parts of the state most affected by the drought.
The tour projected the average soy pod count in a 3-ft. by 3-ft. area at 944.1 pods, below both last year's tour state average of 1,196.0 pods and the three-year average of 1,202.4 pods.
"No matter where we went, the beans disappointed. The pods aren't there, and the beans just aren't in the pods," said Peter Meyer, a crop scout and director of agriculture analytics at PIRA Energy.
The crop tour estimated the corn yield in Illinois at 121.6 bushels per acre (bpa), above the latest U.S. Agriculture Department estimate of 116.0 bpa and below the tour's three-year average in the state of 163.23.
The big picture is still grim. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the drought to drop the average U.S. corn yield to 121.5 bushels per acre, the lowest in 16 years, and corn production to 10.5 billion bushels, an eight-year low.
New-crop corn firmed 0.2 percent to $8.36-1/4 per bushel, having closed down 0.5 percent in the previous session, while December wheat fell 0.3 percent to $9.14-3/4 per bushel after dipping 0.5 percent on Wednesday.
Light showers late this week in the northern Midwest and heavier rainfall in most of the Midwest on Sunday and Monday would provide minimal benefit to drought-stricken U.S. corn or soybeans, since each crop is nearing the end of its growing season, World Weather Inc said.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters pegged U.S. soybean yield at 36.6 bushels per acre, the lowest in eight years, and production is expected at 2.713 billion bushels, a four-year low.
In wheat, which has gained more than 2 percent so far this week, prices continued to be supported by concerns over a possible reduction in exports from the Black Sea region.
Russian grain yields have fallen 27.5 percent from last year to 1.98 tonnes per hectare by Monday, Russia's Agriculture Ministry said, as the crop suffers from a drought that has raised fears of a curb on grain exports.
Grains prices at 0511 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 914.75 -2.25 -0.25% -0.79% 908.33 57
CBOT corn 836.25 1.50 +0.18% -0.30% 799.18 69
CBOT soy 1736.50 8.75 +0.51% +0.23% 1627.27 69
CBOT rice $15.56 -$0.03 -0.16% -1.02% $15.59 48
WTI crude $98.05 $0.79 +0.81% +1.42% $91.82 84
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.254 $0.001 +0.09% +0.54%
USD/AUD 1.051 0.001 +0.07% +0.27%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Editing by Himani Sarkar)
* Soybean pod counts down about 21 pct from average -crop tour
* Tour estimates Illinois corn yield at lowest since 1995
* Soybean production forecast at 8-year low - Reuters poll
* Dalian January soybeans hit record top
By Colin Packham
SYDNEY, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Chicago soybeans hit a contract high on Thursday, rising for a fourth session out of five, after a group of experts painted a bleak supply picture for the crop that has been scorched by the worst drought across the U.S. Midwest in 56 years.
Corn also edged up after yields in Illinois were pegged at their lowest in 17 years by the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. Wheat dipped on better U.S. planting conditions and forecasts for a big Canadian wheat crop.
"The market has largely factored in the damage that has been done to the corn crop, which obviously was harvested a bit earlier than the soybean crop, so we are seeing downgrades to that soybean crop pushing the oilseed higher," said Graydon Chong, a senior grains and oilseeds analyst at Rabobank.
Chicago Board Of Trade November soybeans rose 0.5 percent to $17.36-1/2 per bushel by 0511 GMT, hovering below a record top of $17.44-3/4 per bushel hit earlier in the session.
The most actively traded Dalian Commodity Exchange January soybeans also hit a contract top of 4,945 yuan a tonne.
The annual crop tour estimated soybean pod counts were about 21 percent below average in Illinois, the No. 2 growing state for the crop, with the poorest counts in the central parts of the state most affected by the drought.
The tour projected the average soy pod count in a 3-ft. by 3-ft. area at 944.1 pods, below both last year's tour state average of 1,196.0 pods and the three-year average of 1,202.4 pods.
"No matter where we went, the beans disappointed. The pods aren't there, and the beans just aren't in the pods," said Peter Meyer, a crop scout and director of agriculture analytics at PIRA Energy.
The crop tour estimated the corn yield in Illinois at 121.6 bushels per acre (bpa), above the latest U.S. Agriculture Department estimate of 116.0 bpa and below the tour's three-year average in the state of 163.23.
The big picture is still grim. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the drought to drop the average U.S. corn yield to 121.5 bushels per acre, the lowest in 16 years, and corn production to 10.5 billion bushels, an eight-year low.
New-crop corn firmed 0.2 percent to $8.36-1/4 per bushel, having closed down 0.5 percent in the previous session, while December wheat fell 0.3 percent to $9.14-3/4 per bushel after dipping 0.5 percent on Wednesday.
Light showers late this week in the northern Midwest and heavier rainfall in most of the Midwest on Sunday and Monday would provide minimal benefit to drought-stricken U.S. corn or soybeans, since each crop is nearing the end of its growing season, World Weather Inc said.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters pegged U.S. soybean yield at 36.6 bushels per acre, the lowest in eight years, and production is expected at 2.713 billion bushels, a four-year low.
In wheat, which has gained more than 2 percent so far this week, prices continued to be supported by concerns over a possible reduction in exports from the Black Sea region.
Russian grain yields have fallen 27.5 percent from last year to 1.98 tonnes per hectare by Monday, Russia's Agriculture Ministry said, as the crop suffers from a drought that has raised fears of a curb on grain exports.
Grains prices at 0511 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 914.75 -2.25 -0.25% -0.79% 908.33 57
CBOT corn 836.25 1.50 +0.18% -0.30% 799.18 69
CBOT soy 1736.50 8.75 +0.51% +0.23% 1627.27 69
CBOT rice $15.56 -$0.03 -0.16% -1.02% $15.59 48
WTI crude $98.05 $0.79 +0.81% +1.42% $91.82 84
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.254 $0.001 +0.09% +0.54%
USD/AUD 1.051 0.001 +0.07% +0.27%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Editing by Himani Sarkar)
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