Thursday, 30 August 2012

GRAINS-Wheat falls on profit-taking but Russia worries continue to support

Thu Aug 30, 2012
* Wheat drops after biggest daily rise since mid-July

* Toxin found in some U.S. corn, too early to know if serious problem

* Tropical Storm Isaac expected to spread inland over next few days

By Colin Packham
SYDNEY, Aug 30 (Reuters)
- U.S. wheat fell on Thursday as traders locked in profits following its biggest daily climb since mid-July in the previous session, although concerns that Russia is poised to implement export curbs continued to support prices.

Soybeans slid, giving back a third of their gains from the day before, while corn dropped slightly.

"With the uncertain situation in Russia, traders are cautious and may take gains," said Graydon Chong, senior analyst at Rabobank.

The grain industry in the United States is also on alert for a naturally occurring toxin in corn that could present another challenge to farmers already hit by the worst drought in 56 years, although it is too early to tell how serious the problem might be.

Chicago Board Of Trade December wheat declined 0.36 percent to $9.02-1/2 a bushel after jumping 3.46 percent on Wednesday, its largest daily rise since July 16.

New-crop soybeans fell 0.53 percent to $17.43-1/2 a bushel after climbing 30-3/4 cents the day before, while December corn lost 0.18 percent to $8.12 a bushel, having closed up 2.26 percent.

EYES ON RUSSIA

Wheat jumped on Wednesday as traders readied for a meeting of Russian government officials that is expected to herald export curbs.

Russia recently cut is 2012/13 grain forecast to 75 million tonnes, with private forecasters pegging wheat output at 41.5 million tonnes, below levels after a severe drought in 2010 when Moscow halted exports for almost a year.

The U.S. Agriculture Department has already cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports this year to 8 million tonnes from 12 million.

Wheat was also supported as Saudi Arabia launched a tender to buy 550,000 tonnes of hard wheat (12.5 percent protein) from global suppliers for shipment during December to February.

"There has been some underlying support for wheat in the last few days amid a tender from Saudi Arabia, while the recent acquisition of wheat from Tunisia has buoyed the expectation of continued demand from North African countries," Chong said.

Tunisia's state grains agency purchased 150,000 tonnes of soft milling wheat in a tender for the same volume, European traders said.

TOXIN

Trace amounts of aflatoxin have shown up in some of the corn harvested in the U.S., with top U.S. dairy company Dean Foods in talks with state officials in Indiana and Iowa about testing milk for the carcinogenic byproduct of mold.

Any major outbreak has the potential to snarl the grain handling system in the U.S. Corn Belt and trigger a scramble -- and price spike -- for untainted corn which will already be in short supply this year due to the drought.

But with the corn harvest only 6 percent complete in the United States, the world's largest corn producer and exporter, it's too soon to know whether aflatoxin will be a significant issue.

Hurricane Isaac, since downgraded to a tropical storm, made landfall near New Orleans early on Wednesday, with updated weather maps forecasting heavy rain to spread inland over the next few days.

That is likely to stall the harvest of U.S. crops, though it will add valuable soil moisture ahead of the autumn seeding of winter wheat.

  Grains prices at  0319 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg MA 30   RSI
  CBOT wheat     902.50    -3.25  -0.36%    +3.08%     904.26   53
  CBOT corn      812.00    -1.50  -0.18%    +2.07%     804.58   52
  CBOT soy      1743.75    -9.25  -0.53%    +1.25%    1648.67   61
  CBOT rice      $15.53    $0.01  +0.03%    -0.96%     $15.84   38
  WTI crude      $94.99   -$0.50  -0.52%    -1.39%     $92.80   50
  Currencies                                               
  Euro/dlr       $1.254   $0.001  +0.06%    -0.21%
  USD/AUD         1.032   -0.002  -0.23%    -0.48%
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential

(Editing by Joseph Radford)

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