17th Jul 2012, by Agrimoney
Hopes for world rapeseed supplies took two steps forward and one step back, as hopes grew for Canadian and German crops, but oilseed experts ditched hopes for a bigger crop in Australia.
The Australian Oilseeds Federation lowered by nearly 150,000 tonnes, to 3.05m tonnes, its forecast for the Australian rapeseed harvest, after a dry spell broke "too late" to some areas, leading to "no/poor emergence" and replanting of crops.
In New South Wales, the second-ranked producing state, "the drier start to the season has seen poor root establishment in a number of paddocks, especially the later-sown crops".
In top-ranked Western Australia, "some crops have been lost" in northern areas, "while others are still patchy".
"The drier start and the emerging prospect of a possibility of a return to El Nino later in the year is adding an element of caution to projections," said the federation, which last month estimated the crop at nearly 3.2m tonnes, narrowly ahead of the previous season's 3.19m tonnes.
Crop upgrades
However, harvest hopes improved in some other major rapeseed-growing countries.
in Germany, the Deutsche Raiffeisenverband, the farm co-operatives' association, lifted by 190,000 tonnes to 4.7m tonnes its forecast for the rapeseed crop citing "relatively favourable weather conditions in recent weeks".
A crop at that size would represent a 23% improvement on last year's dryness and frost afflicted crop, whose woes saw Germany overtaken by France as the European Union's top rapeseed producer.
In Canada, the top exporter, the farm ministry hiked by 600,000 tonnes to a record 15.7m tonnes its forecast for domestic production of canola, the rapeseed variant, after a farmer survey showed sowings were higher than had been thought.
"Producers increased seeded area by 13% because of high prices compared to alternative crops and near-ideal seeding conditions," the ministry, AAFC, said.
Rising prices
Indeed, AAFC nudged higher by Can$10 a tonne, to Can$580-620 a tonne, its forecast for farmgate canola prices in 2012-13.
Canola futures last week set a contract high, for the benchmark November lot, of Can$637.80 a tonne, although prices have, unlike in Europe, failed to challenge record highs, above $7 a tonne.
In Paris, the August rapeseed contract in the last session hit a record high for a spot contract of E525.25 a tonne, although it eased on Tuesday to E520.25 a tonne, a decline of 0.6% on the day.
Prices have been boosted both by rising values of rival oilseed soybeans, following poor harvests in South America and heat and drought in the US, besides prospects for tight supplies of rapeseed itself.
The US Department of Agriculture last week estimated world rapeseed inventories falling for a third successive season in 2012-13, on track for a nine-year low of 3.2m tonnes.
Hopes for world rapeseed supplies took two steps forward and one step back, as hopes grew for Canadian and German crops, but oilseed experts ditched hopes for a bigger crop in Australia.
The Australian Oilseeds Federation lowered by nearly 150,000 tonnes, to 3.05m tonnes, its forecast for the Australian rapeseed harvest, after a dry spell broke "too late" to some areas, leading to "no/poor emergence" and replanting of crops.
In New South Wales, the second-ranked producing state, "the drier start to the season has seen poor root establishment in a number of paddocks, especially the later-sown crops".
In top-ranked Western Australia, "some crops have been lost" in northern areas, "while others are still patchy".
"The drier start and the emerging prospect of a possibility of a return to El Nino later in the year is adding an element of caution to projections," said the federation, which last month estimated the crop at nearly 3.2m tonnes, narrowly ahead of the previous season's 3.19m tonnes.
Crop upgrades
However, harvest hopes improved in some other major rapeseed-growing countries.
in Germany, the Deutsche Raiffeisenverband, the farm co-operatives' association, lifted by 190,000 tonnes to 4.7m tonnes its forecast for the rapeseed crop citing "relatively favourable weather conditions in recent weeks".
A crop at that size would represent a 23% improvement on last year's dryness and frost afflicted crop, whose woes saw Germany overtaken by France as the European Union's top rapeseed producer.
In Canada, the top exporter, the farm ministry hiked by 600,000 tonnes to a record 15.7m tonnes its forecast for domestic production of canola, the rapeseed variant, after a farmer survey showed sowings were higher than had been thought.
"Producers increased seeded area by 13% because of high prices compared to alternative crops and near-ideal seeding conditions," the ministry, AAFC, said.
Rising prices
Indeed, AAFC nudged higher by Can$10 a tonne, to Can$580-620 a tonne, its forecast for farmgate canola prices in 2012-13.
Canola futures last week set a contract high, for the benchmark November lot, of Can$637.80 a tonne, although prices have, unlike in Europe, failed to challenge record highs, above $7 a tonne.
In Paris, the August rapeseed contract in the last session hit a record high for a spot contract of E525.25 a tonne, although it eased on Tuesday to E520.25 a tonne, a decline of 0.6% on the day.
Prices have been boosted both by rising values of rival oilseed soybeans, following poor harvests in South America and heat and drought in the US, besides prospects for tight supplies of rapeseed itself.
The US Department of Agriculture last week estimated world rapeseed inventories falling for a third successive season in 2012-13, on track for a nine-year low of 3.2m tonnes.
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