Wednesday 25 July 2012

Corn Advances, Erasing Decline, As Rains May Not Reverse Losses

By Luzi Ann Javier - Jul 25, 2012
Bloomberg

Corn gained, erasing an earlier loss, on concern rains forecast in the next two weeks in parts of the U.S. may fail to reverse crop losses caused by the worst Midwest drought in at least a generation.

Corn for December delivery gained as much as 0.8 percent to $7.8475 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $7.8375 by 2:15 p.m. Singapore time, erasing an earlier loss of 0.9 percent. Futures jumped to a record $8 on July 23 as U.S. crop conditions worsened.

Temperatures in the Midwest are forecast to remain 5 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, and while showers were forecast throughout the region over the next two weeks, rainfall will still be below normal, Joel Widenor, co-founder of Commodity Weather Group LLC, said in a note yesterday.

“Severe drought conditions persist across most production regions,” even as showers in the northern corn belt ease some weather concerns, Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said in a report today. “The USDA is expected to substantially cut its U.S. production next month given the ongoing decline in crop conditions,” he said, referring to the Department of Agriculture by its initials.

The harvest in the U.S., supplier of about 40 percent of the global trade of corn, may fall to 11.327 billion bushels (287.7 million metric tons), 13 percent less than forecast by the USDA on July 11, and 23 percent below the agency’s outlook in June, Dan Cekander, director of grain research at Newedge USA LLC, predicted yesterday. The next USDA estimate is on Aug. 10.

Twenty-six percent of U.S. corn and 31 percent of soybeans were in good or excellent condition as of July 22, the lowest for the date since 1988, the USDA said July 23.

Corn yields from the eastern third and north central parts of Iowa, the biggest U.S. producing state, were 33 percent smaller than measured a year earlier after hot, dry weather hurt grain development, showed field inspections on the second day of the annual Doane Advisory Services Co. crop tour.

Soybeans for November delivery dropped as much as 2.1 percent to $15.36 a bushel before trading at $15.6625. Wheat for September gained 0.8 percent to $8.8575 a bushel, reversing a 1.9 percent loss.

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