30 JUL, 2012, BLOOMBERG
LONDON: Sugar traders are the most bearish in three months on speculation that drier weather will accelerate harvesting in Brazil, the world's largest producer.
Ten of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they expect raw sugar to drop next week and three were bullish. A further three were neutral, making the proportion of bears the highest since April 13.
Sugar output in Brazil's centre south, the biggest producing region, rose 2% in the first half of this month, industry group Unica said on July 25. Cane-growing areas will be mostly dry through the start of August, according Somar Meteorologia, a weather forecaster.
Prices rebounded from a 21-month low last month and entered a bull market on July 9 after rain in May and June delayed Brazil's harvesting and exports.
Sugar is now poised for its worst weekly performance since March as the drier weather eased concern about the crop and refocused attention on the prospects for a glut. Czarnikow Group, which traded the commodity in 90 countries last year, is forecasting a second consecutive surplus in the season that starts on October 1.
"The harvest in Brazil is catching up and that is a good bearish signal for the market," said Jonathan Bouchet, a trader at Boman Capital, a Geneva-based hedge fund. "The weather in South America at the moment is adequate to harvest and ship, which will increase supplies and keep pressure on prices."
While raw sugar rose as much as 27% since June 4 on the ICE Futures US exchange, futures are still 3.4% lower for the year at 22.5 cents a pound.
The Standard & Poor's GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell 1.2% and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 3.7%. Treasuries returned 3.1%, a Bank of America Corp index shows.
Sugar also jumped in the past several weeks as India's monsoon, which brings 70% of the country's rain, was 22% less than average in the June 1-July 23 period, according to the national weather office.
LONDON: Sugar traders are the most bearish in three months on speculation that drier weather will accelerate harvesting in Brazil, the world's largest producer.
Ten of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they expect raw sugar to drop next week and three were bullish. A further three were neutral, making the proportion of bears the highest since April 13.
Sugar output in Brazil's centre south, the biggest producing region, rose 2% in the first half of this month, industry group Unica said on July 25. Cane-growing areas will be mostly dry through the start of August, according Somar Meteorologia, a weather forecaster.
Prices rebounded from a 21-month low last month and entered a bull market on July 9 after rain in May and June delayed Brazil's harvesting and exports.
Sugar is now poised for its worst weekly performance since March as the drier weather eased concern about the crop and refocused attention on the prospects for a glut. Czarnikow Group, which traded the commodity in 90 countries last year, is forecasting a second consecutive surplus in the season that starts on October 1.
"The harvest in Brazil is catching up and that is a good bearish signal for the market," said Jonathan Bouchet, a trader at Boman Capital, a Geneva-based hedge fund. "The weather in South America at the moment is adequate to harvest and ship, which will increase supplies and keep pressure on prices."
While raw sugar rose as much as 27% since June 4 on the ICE Futures US exchange, futures are still 3.4% lower for the year at 22.5 cents a pound.
The Standard & Poor's GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell 1.2% and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 3.7%. Treasuries returned 3.1%, a Bank of America Corp index shows.
Sugar also jumped in the past several weeks as India's monsoon, which brings 70% of the country's rain, was 22% less than average in the June 1-July 23 period, according to the national weather office.
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