Thursday 26 July 2012

GRAINS-Soy falls 2 pct on Midwest rain forecast, wheat down

Thu Jul 26, 2012
* Soy drops 2 pct, wheat falls 1.9 pct, corn down 0.8 pct

* Rains forecast for U.S. Midwest in the days ahead

* Iraq buys 150,000 T of Russian wheat, adds pressure

By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, July 26 (Reuters)
- Chicago new-crop soy slid 2 percent on Thursday, weighed down by forecasts of rain in parts of the U.S. Midwest which is likely to offer some relief to the drought-hit crop, while corn lost almost 1 percent.

Wheat fell nearly 2 percent with the market coming under pressure as Russia secured a tender to supply wheat to Iraq, edging out U.S. exporters.

"In terms of the outlook for soybeans, there is still chance to improve with rain forecast but for corn what is done is done," said a Melbourne-based agricultural commodities analyst.

On wheat, the analyst said: "Iraq's purchase of Russian wheat tells you two things, one Russia has supplies and the second that U.S. did not win the business."

Chicago Board of Trade new-crop December corn slid 0.8 percent to $7.82 a bushel by 0240 GMT, while actively traded November soy fell 2 percent to $15.82-1/2 a bushel.

September wheat lost 1.9 percent to $8.86-1/4 a bushel.

The drought sparked a month-long grains price rally that saw U.S. corn and soybean prices hitting record highs on Friday, raising concern about global food prices.

But prices notched their biggest declines of the summer on Monday and Tuesday on forecasts for rain.

The front-month corn is trading more than 5 percent below Friday's record top of $8.28-3/4 a bushel, while soybeans are down more than 6 percent from the all-time high of $17.77-3/4 a bushel.

Some rain was in the forecast for the next 10 days in northern and eastern parts of the corn belt, but large production areas in Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska were expected to remain parched.

Better-than-average rainfall was expected next week in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky, and in east-central Illinois.

Some rain was also expected in northern and eastern areas this week, but crops in the rest of the growing region will struggle against extreme heat and drought.

U.S. wheat prices came under pressure from Iraq's purchase of Russian wheat. Iraq has bought 150,000 tonnes of Russian wheat in a tender. Glencore International will provide 100,000 tonnes and Olam International the rest, Iraqi Grain Board spokesman Amer Abdul-Aziz said.

The news came amid concerns about a cut in Russian wheat exports because of a drought in the Black Sea region that had lent support to the market on Wednesday.

Commodity funds bought an estimated net 10,000 CBOT corn futures contracts on Wednesday, trade sources said. They bought 12,000 soybean contracts and bought 6,000 wheat.

There was little direction from outside markets which have influenced grain and oilseed prices in the past few days.

Asian shares and the euro steadied on Thursday after bouncing from recent lows as hopes grew for more U.S. stimulus to support growth and new European policy measures to keep the euro zone's debt crisis from deepening further, but sentiment was fragile.

  Prices at  0240 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg MA 30   RSI
  CBOT wheat     886.25   -17.00  -1.88%    +0.85%     823.68   58
  CBOT corn      782.00    -6.00  -0.76%    +0.48%     703.11   57
  CBOT soy      1582.50   -33.00  -2.04%    +0.83%    1520.82   53
  CBOT rice      $15.46   -$0.11  -0.71%    +0.03%     $15.10   59
  WTI crude      $88.81   -$0.16  -0.18%    +0.35%     $85.15   54
  Currencies                                               
  Euro/dlr       $1.214   $0.002  +0.14%    -0.12%
  USD/AUD         1.032   -0.004  -0.41%    -0.52%
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential

(Editing by Himani Sarkar)

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