Wednesday, 18 July 2012

Mosaic upbeat on prospects, despite US drought

17th Jul 2012, by Agrimoney
Mosaic said it was set for "another good" financial year despite the setback to US farmers from drought, although prospects for phosphate price appear far better than those for potash.

The US-based fertilizer giant said its performance in its 2013 year, which started at the beginning of June, would be boosted by "continuing growth in global demand for crop nutrients".

"Despite the current drought in the US Corn Belt, farm economics remain compelling," Jim Prokopanko, the Mosaic chief executive, said.

While US growers are set for corn yields well below the record levels initially expected, farmgate prices are set to far exceed the $4.20-5.00 per bushel the US Department of Agriculture had pencilled in before drought struck, and futures soared on markets worldwide.

Indeed, "farmers around the world continue to be incentivised to use our products to increase their crop yields", Mr Prokopanko said.

Price prospects

However, while expecting a rise in its phosphate sales prices in the June-to-August period, to $510-535 per tonne, from $494 per tonne in the March-to-May quarter, Mosaic forecast a drop in potash prices.

The group expects to sell its potash at $415-440 per tonne in the latest quarter, down from $455 per tonne in the March-to-May period, and the $446 per tonne a year before.

The prospect of a price decline reflects "both seasonal pricing declines in North America and an increased proportion of international sales", Mosaic said.

In the latest quarter, the group sold potash in the US for $498 per tonne, 24% more than it achieved on international sales.

'Low inventory levels'

The higher average price, above a figure of $404 achieved in the March-to-May period of 2011, helped the group's potash revenues rise 5.6% to $1.04bn despite a 6.0% dip in sales volumes.

"Distributors continued to maintain low inventory levels, as expected," Mr Prokopanko said, while flagging that farmers themselves "applied high quantities of potash" in the quarter.

For phosphate - which hit a "strong note, with robust shipments worldwide" of 2.9m tonnes, ahead of guidance of 2.3m-2.7m tonnes – sales eased 4.9% to $1.79bn, as decreased prices more than offset a boost from higher volumes.

However, Mr Prokopanko highlighted that the phosphate market "has tightened, as producer inventories dropped dramatically, with global demand more than offsetting lower sales to India", the top importer, where a weak rupee and a change to government subsidies has sapped demand.

Ahead of forecasts

Group revenues eased 1.4% to $2.82bn, if still beating Wall Street forecasts for a $2.55bn result.

Group earnings of$507.3m, or $1.19 a share, also narrowly topped analysts forecasts of a $1.15-a-share result, if representing a 22% decline year on year.

Mosaic shares closed 5.1% higher at $58.21 in New York.

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