Source :FAO, IRRI, Bloomberg
16 August, 2012
At the new forecast level of 724.5 million tons, global production of rice in 2012 would be only marginally above the excellent 2011 results, recently further revised upwards. And for India export moderation in rice is a given because of the deficient monsoons plaguing rice cultivation in various states.
MUMBAI(Commodity Online): Indian rice output for the year would be down by between 5 million metric tons and 7 million tons below a record 91.5 million tons a year earlier, but may not impact global rice inventories; experts feel. The country is the second biggest grower of the commodity.
However the scenario may force government to call for more pulses imports.
At the new forecast level of 724.5 million tons (483.1 million tons, milled basis), global production of rice in 2012 would be only marginally above the excellent 2011 results, recently further revised upwards, said FAO Rice Market Monitor, a monthly publication on global rice scenario.
FAO has lowered its April forecast of global paddy production in 2012 by 7.8 million tons following a worsening of the outlook in Asia. The downward revision mainly concerned India, where the critical monsoon rains were 22 percent short of the Long Period Average by mid-July.
“A lot of importing countries looking toward India for more competitive prices are likely to shift to Thailand or Vietnam,” Abah Ofon, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc, said to Bloomberg News.
“If we see a drop in India’s rice output, it is not going to have a significant impact on global inventories. There may be slight moderation in exports.” he added.
Deficient Monsoons
More than half way into the monsoon season, many Indian states continue to reel under deficient rainfall, begins Sam Mohanty who wrote a blog about “Looming drought in India: what’s at stake for the global rice market?” in International Rice Research Institute portal.
“Many experts feel this monsoon is worse than even the 2009 season when drought reduced Indian rice production by more than 10 percent. But it is still too early to gauge the extent of damage to rice production because of deficit rainfall. The situation can still improve if the monsoon returns to normal for the remainder of August and September. For example, the planting situation in Andhra Pradesh has improved drastically after good rainfall since the second half of July. That is the case in many other parts of India where rainfall situation has improved in the last few weeks.” Mohanty opined.
“So far, the worst affected rice growing states are Punjab, Haryana, and Western Uttar Pradesh where rainfall deficit has been more than 50 percent.” He added.
However in these states 90% of rice fields are irrigated. And with adequate diesel subsides on offer, Monsoon deficiency may not impact them much as bore-wells could cater to irrigation.
“It is almost certain that Indian rice production in 2012/13 will not reach the level that was harvested in 2011/12.” he concluded.
Wider Asia
As the season progressed, production forecasts for Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, Mali, Pakistan and Sri Lanka were also downgraded.
"On the positive side, the 2012 production forecasts in China (Mainland), Indonesia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Thailand and the United States were all scaled up.” the FAO report noted.
Africa scenario
Production in Africa looks set to recover in 2012, possibly jumping by 3 percent, which, to a large extent, draws on expectations of an improved performance in western Africa. Prospects are also positive in Eastern and Northern Africa, but the season may end negatively in the Southern part of the continent.
Latin America & Carribeans
In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a lack of precipitation and a shift towards more remunerative products in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay are behind a 7 percent drop of production in the region in 2012.
Yet, prospects remain positive for Bolivia, Colombia, Guyana, Peru and Venezuela. In the other regions, Australia already concluded the season with an outstanding 32 percent area-led increase.
US, Europe
As for output in the United States, it is officially anticipated to recover from last year's low, yet remaining well short of pre-2011 volumes.
By contrast, production may fall in the EU, owing to a lingering drought in Spain.
16 August, 2012
At the new forecast level of 724.5 million tons, global production of rice in 2012 would be only marginally above the excellent 2011 results, recently further revised upwards. And for India export moderation in rice is a given because of the deficient monsoons plaguing rice cultivation in various states.
MUMBAI(Commodity Online): Indian rice output for the year would be down by between 5 million metric tons and 7 million tons below a record 91.5 million tons a year earlier, but may not impact global rice inventories; experts feel. The country is the second biggest grower of the commodity.
However the scenario may force government to call for more pulses imports.
At the new forecast level of 724.5 million tons (483.1 million tons, milled basis), global production of rice in 2012 would be only marginally above the excellent 2011 results, recently further revised upwards, said FAO Rice Market Monitor, a monthly publication on global rice scenario.
FAO has lowered its April forecast of global paddy production in 2012 by 7.8 million tons following a worsening of the outlook in Asia. The downward revision mainly concerned India, where the critical monsoon rains were 22 percent short of the Long Period Average by mid-July.
“A lot of importing countries looking toward India for more competitive prices are likely to shift to Thailand or Vietnam,” Abah Ofon, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc, said to Bloomberg News.
“If we see a drop in India’s rice output, it is not going to have a significant impact on global inventories. There may be slight moderation in exports.” he added.
Deficient Monsoons
More than half way into the monsoon season, many Indian states continue to reel under deficient rainfall, begins Sam Mohanty who wrote a blog about “Looming drought in India: what’s at stake for the global rice market?” in International Rice Research Institute portal.
“Many experts feel this monsoon is worse than even the 2009 season when drought reduced Indian rice production by more than 10 percent. But it is still too early to gauge the extent of damage to rice production because of deficit rainfall. The situation can still improve if the monsoon returns to normal for the remainder of August and September. For example, the planting situation in Andhra Pradesh has improved drastically after good rainfall since the second half of July. That is the case in many other parts of India where rainfall situation has improved in the last few weeks.” Mohanty opined.
“So far, the worst affected rice growing states are Punjab, Haryana, and Western Uttar Pradesh where rainfall deficit has been more than 50 percent.” He added.
However in these states 90% of rice fields are irrigated. And with adequate diesel subsides on offer, Monsoon deficiency may not impact them much as bore-wells could cater to irrigation.
“It is almost certain that Indian rice production in 2012/13 will not reach the level that was harvested in 2011/12.” he concluded.
Wider Asia
As the season progressed, production forecasts for Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, Mali, Pakistan and Sri Lanka were also downgraded.
"On the positive side, the 2012 production forecasts in China (Mainland), Indonesia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Thailand and the United States were all scaled up.” the FAO report noted.
Africa scenario
Production in Africa looks set to recover in 2012, possibly jumping by 3 percent, which, to a large extent, draws on expectations of an improved performance in western Africa. Prospects are also positive in Eastern and Northern Africa, but the season may end negatively in the Southern part of the continent.
Latin America & Carribeans
In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a lack of precipitation and a shift towards more remunerative products in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay are behind a 7 percent drop of production in the region in 2012.
Yet, prospects remain positive for Bolivia, Colombia, Guyana, Peru and Venezuela. In the other regions, Australia already concluded the season with an outstanding 32 percent area-led increase.
US, Europe
As for output in the United States, it is officially anticipated to recover from last year's low, yet remaining well short of pre-2011 volumes.
By contrast, production may fall in the EU, owing to a lingering drought in Spain.
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