Thursday, 16 August 2012

GRAINS-US soybeans fall as demand slows; corn, wheat dip

Thu Aug 16, 2012
* Soybeans fall 0.8 pct after Wednesday's rally of 2.3 pct

* Soy spot bids drop on U.S. Midwest rivers as demand slows

* Wheat ticks lower, falls for four out of five sessions

* Grain, oilseed markets to be volatile on tight supply

By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Aug 16 (Reuters)
- Chicago soybeans slid 0.8 percent on Thursday, giving up some of the last session's strong gains on slowing demand from importers, stung by a rally in prices caused by the worst drought in the U.S. grain belt in more than half a century.

New-crop corn slipped after gaining almost 2 percent in the last session on shrinking global supplies, while wheat lost 0.6 percent, falling for four of five sessions.

Soybean spot basis bids fell sharply at river terminals around the U.S. Midwest on Wednesday as export demand slowed, with bids falling 31 cents per bushel on the Illinois river and 18 cents on the Mississippi river.

Corn and soybean markets will stay volatile in the next few weeks as the market tries to assess how much demand has been rationed after the price surge of the past two months.

"The big thing now is the demand rationing task which is needed in corn and soybeans," said Luke Mathews, a commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"We have very low inventories of corn and soybeans and relatively low inventories of wheat, which means we are going to see heightened volatility."

Chicago Board of Trade new-crop November soybeans fell 0.8 percent to $16.20-3/4 a bushel by 0311 GMT, while December corn lost 0.5 percent to $8.00-1/4 a bushel. September wheat slid 0.6 percent to $8.42 a bushel.

The cash premium for promptly shipped U.S. soybean barges at the U.S. Gulf Coast spiked on Wednesday as at least one exporter was caught short but near-record high prices for the oilseed continued to put a lid on demand.

China's unrelenting imports of soybeans could hit a wall soon as oilseed processors cut purchases, with margins being eroded by a nearly 30 percent price rise in the last two months.

Fourth-quarter soybean imports could drop a fifth, trade estimates show, as top processors in China cut output.

U.S. corn futures have been supported by rising oil prices, since the grain is also used as a feedstock for ethanol.

Ethanol output has rebounded in recent weeks after soaring corn prices and poor profit margins forced some U.S. plants to temporarily shutter or slow operations. U.S. government data released on Wednesday showed ethanol production rose to 819,000 barrels per day for the week ended Aug. 10, the third straight weekly rise in output.

The wheat market has come under pressure from Russia's wheat sales to Egypt, the world's biggest importer, but expects lower shipments from the Black Sea region after a drought there.

Russia's exportable grain surplus of 10 million to 11 million tonnes could run out by November if the country retains a high pace of shipments, SovEcon agricultural analysts said, fanning fears about export limits.

Weather maps show a better chance for rain in the last two weeks of August in the U.S. Midwest, but they will be too late to boost corn or soybean prospects much, an agricultural meteorologist forecast.

Meteorologists and crop experts say the domestic corn crop was harmed beyond repair from the worst drought in 56 years over the summer, and much of the soybean crop was damaged as well.

  Prices at 0311 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  MA 30   RSI
  CBOT wheat     842.00    -4.75  -0.56%   872.48   36
  CBOT corn      800.25    -3.75  -0.47%   768.58   46
  CBOT soy      1620.75   -13.75  -0.84%  1584.57   45
  CBOT rice      $15.22    $0.05  +0.33%   $15.48   35
  WTI crude      $94.50    $0.17  +0.18%   $89.13   71
  Currencies                                               
  Euro/dlr       $1.229   $0.000  -0.02%  
  USD/AUD         1.049   -0.006  -0.59%  
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential

(Reporting by Naveen Thukral;Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

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