Tuesday, 7 August 2012

GRAINS-Soybeans inch up after weather losses on Monday

Tue Aug 7, 2012
* Soybean condition fears eased by crop-friendly weather

* Market eyes USDA supply and demand report on Friday
By Colin Packham
SYDNEY, Aug 7 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans edged higher on Tuesday after losing almost 3 percent in the previous session as rain over some key growing regions of the U.S. Midwest eased concerns of further damage to new-crop supplies.

Crop-friendly weather also helped corn to extended losses from Monday, while wheat was little changed.

Chicago Board Of Trade November soybeans rose 0.4 percent to $15.90-1/4 a bushel, having closed down 2.7 percent in the previous session.

December corn fell slightly to $8.04-1/4 a bushel, having fluctuated in positive and negative territory throughout Asian trading, while spot wheat was steady at $8.92-1/2 a bushel after falling 0.2 percent on Monday.

"It could be simply a recovery from last night," Luke Matthews, commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said, referring to the soybean gains.

"We are also approaching the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly supply and demand report, and the market is going to be a bit jumpy in the lead up to that."

DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY EASE

Soybeans prices fell on Monday after rain arrived across the U.S. Midwest over the weekend, easing fears that the worst drought in 56 years may hurt new-crop soybeans yields as significantly as it is expected to hurt corn production.

The high heat that scorched the Midwest in July could also be moderating, with highs later this week and early next week forecast in the 80s degrees Fahrenheit.

The weekend rains are expected to help soybean yields, as the crop is in a critical phase of development.

Crop-friendly weather is also forecast for the next couple of days, providing a further boost for U.S. farmers, and hinting that the worst may be over for grains and oilseeds.

After the rains, the USDA said 29 percent of soybeans were rated good-to-excellent for the week ending August 5, snapping six straight weeks where the crop's health has deteriorated because of the drought.

The USDA had said good-to-excellent corn quality ratings fell 1 percent to 23 percent, matching analysts expectations.

Despite the uptick in fortunes, the USDA is expected to slash its estimates for 2012/13 corn and soybean production as a result of the drought.

Closely watched analytics firm Informa Economics on Friday pegged U.S. corn yields at 120.7 bushels per acre and production at 10.338 billion bushels, lower than previous forecasts and also lower than the USDA's estimates.

Informa pegged the soybean yield at 37.2 bushels per acre and production at 2.791 billion, down from 38.5 bushels and 2.9 billion bushels, respectively. The USDA's estimates are 40.5 bushels and 3.050 billion bushels, respectively.

  Grains prices at  0432 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg MA 30   RSI
  CBOT wheat     892.50    -0.75  -0.08%   +35.84%     622.41   54
  CBOT corn      804.25    -0.75  -0.09%   +22.13%     615.40   56
  CBOT soy      1590.75     6.50  +0.41%   +29.59%    1167.34   37
  CBOT rice      $15.92   -$0.03  -0.19%    +8.71%     $14.48   63
  WTI crude      $91.96   -$0.24  -0.26%   -10.68%     $98.59   63
  Currencies                                               
  Euro/dlr       $1.240  -$0.054  -4.20%    -4.98%
  USD/AUD         1.058    0.022  +2.10%    +2.07%
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential

(Editing by Miral Fahmy)

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