Mon Aug 6, 2012
* Soybeans drop to 1-1/2 week low, corn down about 1 pct
* Cooler weather, light rain forecast weigh on prices -analyst
* Investors eye USDA supply-demand report for trading cues
SYDNEY, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Chicago soybeans fell more than 2 percent on Monday, unwinding last week's gains, on forecasts for light rain in some regions of the drought-battered U.S. Midwest over the coming days.
New-crop corn slid nearly 1 percent after a steep rally of more than 50 percent in the last two months, while wheat dropped following a more than 3 percent gain in the previous session.
"There's cooler weather and a little bit of light rain forecast, which I think is keeping the market a bit depressed," Andrew Woodhouse, a Sydney-based analyst at Advance Trading Australasia said.
But the drop in prices should be limited as investors await fresh trading cues from a key supply-demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture later this week that will quantify crop damage from the worst drought in 56 years.
Chicago Board Of Trade November soybean fell more than 2 percent to $15.94 a bushel by 0038 GMT after climbing 1.7 percent last week. Soybeans dropped to a low of $15.75-3/4 a bushel earlier in the session, lowest since July 27.
December corn fell about 1 percent to $8-1/2 a bushel after climbing 1.5 percent on Friday.
Front-month wheat fell 0.7 percent to $8.84-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 3 percent in the previous session.
An upbeat U.S. jobs report and private forecasts that the drought has hurt U.S. crops more than government surveys indicate fueled strong grains in the grain complex on Friday.
WEATHER IMPACT
Private crop analysts have been slashing their production estimates to below current government forecasts and the market now needs USDA confirmation before deciding on its next move.
Closely watched analytics firm Informa Economics on Friday predicted USDA's Aug. 10 crop report will estimate the U.S. corn crop at 10.338 billion bushels, according to traders. That was down 10 percent from Informa's previous forecast and 20 percent below the USDA's latest estimate of 12.97 billion bushels.
Informa projected final U.S. 2012 corn production at 11.224 billion bushels, traders said. Informa does not publicly release its estimates.
Doane Advisory Services forecast corn production at 10.792 billion bushels following an annual crop tour, while a Farm Futures Magazine survey put the corn crop even lower at 9.57 billion bushels.
Meanwhile, Russian grain exports are off to a fast start in the new agricultural year even though Russia's exportable surplus has shrunk drastically in the drought, surprising analysts and raising questions about how long Russia can sustain the pace.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs said it saw growing upside risks to wheat prices in the coming months due to continued dry weather in countries such as Argentina, India, Australia and the former Soviet Union.
Grains prices at 0038 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 884.75 -6.50 -0.73% +34.67% 622.15 51
CBOT corn 800.50 -7.00 -0.87% +21.56% 615.28 56
CBOT soy 1594.00 -34.75 -2.13% +29.86% 1167.45 40
CBOT rice $15.79 -$0.18 -1.16% +7.82% $14.47 57
WTI crude $91.09 -$0.31 -0.34% -11.53% $98.56 61
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.241 -$0.053 -4.10% -4.89%
USD/AUD 1.056 0.019 +1.82% +1.79%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Reporting by Colin Packham; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
* Soybeans drop to 1-1/2 week low, corn down about 1 pct
* Cooler weather, light rain forecast weigh on prices -analyst
* Investors eye USDA supply-demand report for trading cues
SYDNEY, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Chicago soybeans fell more than 2 percent on Monday, unwinding last week's gains, on forecasts for light rain in some regions of the drought-battered U.S. Midwest over the coming days.
New-crop corn slid nearly 1 percent after a steep rally of more than 50 percent in the last two months, while wheat dropped following a more than 3 percent gain in the previous session.
"There's cooler weather and a little bit of light rain forecast, which I think is keeping the market a bit depressed," Andrew Woodhouse, a Sydney-based analyst at Advance Trading Australasia said.
But the drop in prices should be limited as investors await fresh trading cues from a key supply-demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture later this week that will quantify crop damage from the worst drought in 56 years.
Chicago Board Of Trade November soybean fell more than 2 percent to $15.94 a bushel by 0038 GMT after climbing 1.7 percent last week. Soybeans dropped to a low of $15.75-3/4 a bushel earlier in the session, lowest since July 27.
December corn fell about 1 percent to $8-1/2 a bushel after climbing 1.5 percent on Friday.
Front-month wheat fell 0.7 percent to $8.84-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 3 percent in the previous session.
An upbeat U.S. jobs report and private forecasts that the drought has hurt U.S. crops more than government surveys indicate fueled strong grains in the grain complex on Friday.
WEATHER IMPACT
Private crop analysts have been slashing their production estimates to below current government forecasts and the market now needs USDA confirmation before deciding on its next move.
Closely watched analytics firm Informa Economics on Friday predicted USDA's Aug. 10 crop report will estimate the U.S. corn crop at 10.338 billion bushels, according to traders. That was down 10 percent from Informa's previous forecast and 20 percent below the USDA's latest estimate of 12.97 billion bushels.
Informa projected final U.S. 2012 corn production at 11.224 billion bushels, traders said. Informa does not publicly release its estimates.
Doane Advisory Services forecast corn production at 10.792 billion bushels following an annual crop tour, while a Farm Futures Magazine survey put the corn crop even lower at 9.57 billion bushels.
Meanwhile, Russian grain exports are off to a fast start in the new agricultural year even though Russia's exportable surplus has shrunk drastically in the drought, surprising analysts and raising questions about how long Russia can sustain the pace.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs said it saw growing upside risks to wheat prices in the coming months due to continued dry weather in countries such as Argentina, India, Australia and the former Soviet Union.
Grains prices at 0038 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 884.75 -6.50 -0.73% +34.67% 622.15 51
CBOT corn 800.50 -7.00 -0.87% +21.56% 615.28 56
CBOT soy 1594.00 -34.75 -2.13% +29.86% 1167.45 40
CBOT rice $15.79 -$0.18 -1.16% +7.82% $14.47 57
WTI crude $91.09 -$0.31 -0.34% -11.53% $98.56 61
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.241 -$0.053 -4.10% -4.89%
USD/AUD 1.056 0.019 +1.82% +1.79%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Reporting by Colin Packham; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
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