16 JUL, 2012, ET BUREAU
NEW DELHI: After the spurt in past week, monsoon has receded from the north western and central parts of the country posing a threat on paddy, oilseeds, coarse grains and pulses.
The rain bearing clouds have now moved to the foothills of Himalayas and north-eastern states bringing 87% above normal rains in the flood-prone Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal boosting rice planting. The rainfall was 34% above normal in southern peninsula also but the central and north western regions witnessed 36% and 50% below normal rains respectively.
Monsoon, after a surplus of 1% in the week ending July 11, had been deficient for the consecutive three days. But on Sunday, the rainfall, revived to normal bringing down the overall deficiency from 23% to 22%.
Weather office says that the monsoon trough is likely to remain in the foothills of Himalayas for sometime leaving parts of central and north-western states parched where sowing activities had just gained momentum after the previous week's vigorous rains. Agriculture ministry data shows that area under paddy doubled over last week while oilseed and pulses sowing galloped by 155% and 56% over last week to cover substantial area, but the acreage is still down by 19% as compared to last year.
The situation in some parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka is alarming forcing the central government to recommend contingency crop planning for these states as reported by ET on Friday. Now with rains moving away, the situation is likely to worsen.
"If rains dry up for more than 10 days in the second half of July, then there could be concern over yield and total output. However, kharif crops unlike rabi have a larger crop window allowing speedy recovery once rains pour in, said Dr PK Joshi, director, South Asia, International Food Policy Research Institute.
The timing of the probable dry spell in the latter part of this month gains significance as the El Nino phenomenon, which upsets rainfall patterns, is expected to set in by August. Even Indian Meteorological Department is saying that the chances of El Nino have brightened with rising of temperature in the Pacific Ocean.
"Now there are strong chances of emergence of El Nino but it will not set in before mid August," said IMD chief Laxman Singh Rathore. Global weather agencies are also indicating emergence of El Nino by August. The Japan Meteorological Agency also said in its update that chances are high that the El Nino phenomenon will emerge by August this year.
The US Climate Prediction Center last week had said that El Nino may strike as early as the third quarter of 2012.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which is widely respected for its accurate prediction of the El Nino phenomenon, has predicted a strong possibility of the emergence of El Nino.
Rains then will be crucial for paddy cultivation this time even in the completely irrigated fields of the two states as water level in the Bhakra dam is barely 20% of capacity, down from 46% at the same time last year. The condition is not different in other reservoirs in the country with three reservoirs each in Karnataka and Maharashtra completely drying out. India's 84 main reservoirs are filled to 18% of capacity against 29% a year ago.
Deficient rains in parts of Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka, Gujarat and western Rajasthan are causing concerns for crops like cotton, groundnut, coarse grains and guar which earlier this year had set the cash register ringing on the exchange.
"Insufficient rains in Karnataka and Gujarat may adversely impact the crops of cotton, groundnut, maize, ragi and sorghum. Crops like guar, bajra and pearl millet will also be badly affected if rains don't happen in western Rajasthan over the next 10 days. In the rest of the country, the situation is satisfactory as far as sowing is concerned," said B Venkateswarlu, director, Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture.
NEW DELHI: After the spurt in past week, monsoon has receded from the north western and central parts of the country posing a threat on paddy, oilseeds, coarse grains and pulses.
The rain bearing clouds have now moved to the foothills of Himalayas and north-eastern states bringing 87% above normal rains in the flood-prone Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal boosting rice planting. The rainfall was 34% above normal in southern peninsula also but the central and north western regions witnessed 36% and 50% below normal rains respectively.
Monsoon, after a surplus of 1% in the week ending July 11, had been deficient for the consecutive three days. But on Sunday, the rainfall, revived to normal bringing down the overall deficiency from 23% to 22%.
Weather office says that the monsoon trough is likely to remain in the foothills of Himalayas for sometime leaving parts of central and north-western states parched where sowing activities had just gained momentum after the previous week's vigorous rains. Agriculture ministry data shows that area under paddy doubled over last week while oilseed and pulses sowing galloped by 155% and 56% over last week to cover substantial area, but the acreage is still down by 19% as compared to last year.
The situation in some parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka is alarming forcing the central government to recommend contingency crop planning for these states as reported by ET on Friday. Now with rains moving away, the situation is likely to worsen.
"If rains dry up for more than 10 days in the second half of July, then there could be concern over yield and total output. However, kharif crops unlike rabi have a larger crop window allowing speedy recovery once rains pour in, said Dr PK Joshi, director, South Asia, International Food Policy Research Institute.
The timing of the probable dry spell in the latter part of this month gains significance as the El Nino phenomenon, which upsets rainfall patterns, is expected to set in by August. Even Indian Meteorological Department is saying that the chances of El Nino have brightened with rising of temperature in the Pacific Ocean.
"Now there are strong chances of emergence of El Nino but it will not set in before mid August," said IMD chief Laxman Singh Rathore. Global weather agencies are also indicating emergence of El Nino by August. The Japan Meteorological Agency also said in its update that chances are high that the El Nino phenomenon will emerge by August this year.
The US Climate Prediction Center last week had said that El Nino may strike as early as the third quarter of 2012.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which is widely respected for its accurate prediction of the El Nino phenomenon, has predicted a strong possibility of the emergence of El Nino.
Rains then will be crucial for paddy cultivation this time even in the completely irrigated fields of the two states as water level in the Bhakra dam is barely 20% of capacity, down from 46% at the same time last year. The condition is not different in other reservoirs in the country with three reservoirs each in Karnataka and Maharashtra completely drying out. India's 84 main reservoirs are filled to 18% of capacity against 29% a year ago.
Deficient rains in parts of Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka, Gujarat and western Rajasthan are causing concerns for crops like cotton, groundnut, coarse grains and guar which earlier this year had set the cash register ringing on the exchange.
"Insufficient rains in Karnataka and Gujarat may adversely impact the crops of cotton, groundnut, maize, ragi and sorghum. Crops like guar, bajra and pearl millet will also be badly affected if rains don't happen in western Rajasthan over the next 10 days. In the rest of the country, the situation is satisfactory as far as sowing is concerned," said B Venkateswarlu, director, Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture.
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