VINSON KURIAN, THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, JULY 5:
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this morning reported further progress of the monsoon’s cavalcade into north India.
It has also said piloting rains would reach parts of parched northwest India during the next few days.
‘Too optimistic’
Global weather models have, however, advised caution saying that it is ‘too optimistic’ to expect any dramatic change in weather conditions in this region.
Some rain is not ruled out, but they doubt if the trend would sustain for long in the absence of a ‘suitably enabled’ environment.
These models are of the view that the ongoing rains in central India would start withdrawing by the weekend to east India and along the foothills Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Some rains may continue to persist along the West Coast.
But peninsular India, central India and northwest India will gradually dry up in the process since monsoon flows are seen weakening in the interregnum.
Mercury level
A top Met official told Business Line that he could not recall another time in recent memory when the mercury level has remain stuck five degrees above the average for more than 20 days in New Delhi.
The catchment areas are all drying up fast and if the conditions persist for another 10 days, the continued availability of irrigation as well as piped water could pose a problem.
He too expected the rains to set in on Delhi from the weekend, but was not sure if the amount would be sufficient to meet all needs.
Unlike 2009
This is unlike the situation in year 2009 when June ran into a deficit (-40 per cent), but July managed to do a ‘lot of catching’ up (-3 per cent) and retrieved the situation. “If July fails to do the same this year, then we would be left with counting too much on August and September, which are under an El Nino shadow,” the official said.
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