Wednesday, 18 July 2012

Corn May Drop For Second Day On Concern Rally Is Curbing Demand

By Phoebe Sedgman and Luzi Ann Javier - Jul 18, 2012
Bloomberg

Corn may decline for a second day on speculation that a drought-fueled rally to a 13-month high may curb demand for supplies from the U.S., the world’s largest grower and exporter. Wheat dropped.

Corn for December delivery was little changed at $7.7075 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade at 3:21 p.m. in Singapore after swinging between gains and losses. The price reached $7.89 yesterday, the highest level for a most-active contract since June 9, 2011, and near the record $7.9925 set in 2008.

U.S. output of ethanol, which can be made from corn, fell 4.2 percent in the week ended July 6 to the lowest level in almost two years, government data show.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on July 11 cut its 2012 forecast for meat and poultry output 0.7 percent. Corn is up 52 percent since mid-June as Midwest crops withered under the drought.

“Rationing appears to be occurring in the ethanol market,” Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a report e-mailed today.

About 55 percent of the contiguous U.S. states were in moderate-to-extreme drought at the end of June, the highest percentage since December 1956, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Last month was the 14th-warmest ever and the 10th-driest June based on records going back to 1895.

The U.S. corn harvest may drop to 11.8 billion bushels (299.7 million metric tons), according to Dan Cekander, director of grain research at broker Newedge USA LLC. That’s 29.75 million tons less than the latest estimate from the USDA, and would be the smallest crop since 2006-2007.

September-delivery wheat fell as much as 1.1 percent to $8.755 a bushel and was at $8.8025. Wheat reached $8.985 yesterday, the highest level for a most-active contract since Feb. 15, 2011. Soybeans for November delivery climbed 0.2 percent to $15.93 a bushel, after touching $16.07 yesterday, the most expensive since July 2008.

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