World soyabean production may drop to 240 million tonnes

4 MAY, 2012, NIDHI NATH SRINIVAS,ET BUREAU

World soyabean production may drop to 240 million tonnes this season, 9.5% less than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food & Agriculture Organization said in a report on Thursday.

US soyabean planting probably will be 1.8 million acres more than the 73.9 million projected by the USDA on March 30, according to Rabobank. South American soya output will decline 14% due to dry weather in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut its forecast for soya harvest in Argentina by 2 million tonnes to 41 million tonnes, 17% below the previous year's crop of 49.2 million tonnes. The exchange said, 64% of the soya area was harvested up 8% points from a week earlier.

NCDEX soyabean and soya oil fell on Thursday with soya oil falling sharply following weakness in BMD CPO and Chicago soya oil prices. However, sharply weaker rupee limited losses.

According to Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India's oil meal exports during April 2011 - March 2012 increased by 8.88% to 5,522,312 tonnes over the corresponding period previous year. Soya meal and rapeseed meal exports in this period were 3,829,521 tonnes and 1,171,895 tonnes, a change of -0.23% and 25.17 % over corresponding period in previous year.

India's oil meal exports in March 2012 changed by 27.31% to 618,201 tonnes over February 2012 exports and changed 6.60% over March 2011 exports. Soya meal and rape seed meal exports in March 2012 were 460,464 tonnes and 102,444 tonnes, a change of 33.76% and 28.16% over February 2012 exports.

India's vegetable oil imports rose 22.50% in November - March period compared to the previous corresponding period. India's vegetable oil imports in March 2012 were at 702,335 tonnes, which is 70% higher than March 2011 import data and 19.60% lower than February 2012 import data.

Higher dollar and lower crude oil likely induced long liquidation selling from fund traders. This, along with the key technical reversal of Wednesday attracted profit-taking ahead of next week's supply/demand update.

Analysts said after a very bullish weekly sales report, the market was expected to open higher but ideas that the China buying is near complete for now and a negative tilt to outside market forces and weather helped to pressure the market. Ideas that China may shift to using more government-own reserves helped to pressure the market.

Weekly export sales for soyabeans came in at 598,000t onnes for the current marketing year and 1.134 million tonnes for the next marketing year for a total of 1.732 million tonnes. Traders expected near 1.3-1.5 million.

Meal sales were 59,000 tonnes for the current marketing year and 92,700 tonnes for the next marketing year for a total of 151,700 tonnes. Net oil sales came in at 14,900 tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 14,900 tonnes. Private exporters reported the sale of 232,000 tonnes of US soyabeans to China for the 2012-13 season.