Potential boom of China’s coal imports could provide further support to dry bulk market

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 |
The dry bulk market has been moving sideways during the past week with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) losing 0.53% on the start of the week, ending the session at 1,132 points. The Capesize market lost 0.12%, practically stable compared to end of the past week. The Panamax market was once again the main losing one, with the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) retreating by 1.74% to 1,299 points. By contrast, the Handysize segment of the market continued its rebound, to end the session up by 1.14% to 623 points.

In a recent note, Commodore Research & Consultancy, commented on the ongoing decline in regional thermal coal export prices. “Indonesian, Australian, and South African thermal coal prices have all been coming under steady pressure since March. During the same time period, however, domestic Chinese prices have remained basically flat. *Outside of China, regional thermal coal prices are now at their lowest levels since late 2010*. The very attractive regional thermal coal import prices (and approaching peak summer demand season in China) will likely result in Chinese coal imports setting a new record within a few months” said Commodore.

In a separate weekly dry bulk report, shipbroker BRS mentioned that it was a second week of corrections for the Panamax market, and the BPI dropped 13.4% to 1322 points. Conversely the Capes rose slightly to 1614 (2.4%). The BSI was practically unchanged at 1112 (-0.5%) and the BHI moved up 2.3% to 616 points. Regarding the Capesize market, the shipbroker noted that “there were overall gains for the Cape market but it was a mixed picture. The 4TC rose to $8,660, a rises of 10%, but gains were only in the Atlantic and conditions softened again at the end of the week. By week-end Aus-China was assessed at $7.55 and Bra-China at $20.55, while rates in the Pacific actually came off. Overall activity was sluggish, and gains were partly attributed to the rise in the FFA market the previous week. There was some correction in the paper market last week, with rates shaking out by Friday to $10,250, $11,650 and $14,250 for June, Q3 and Cal13 respectively. The 4TC fell 65 points on Monday” said the report.

Regarding the Panamax market, it stated that “the Atlantic basin came under further pressure this week, with a significant proportion of May business seemingly being covered. Charterers appeared more willing to watch and wait for further developments before committing to the market, with bid/offer spreads on TA rounds remaining stubbornly apart. Combined with this, the overall tonnage supply remained fairly high, and as a result the 1A index dropped back from $15,088 to $13,144 w-o-w, with sentiment remaining soft moving into the new week.

Business ex ECSA has also slowed down markedly over the past week, downshifting the 2A index from $20,543 to $18,083 w-o-w. Owners appear less willing to reposition their tonnage towards the Pacific due to high tonnage supply there, along with softening demand fundamentals in both coal and iron ore markets. Pacific rounds are being reported in the region of $9,000 per day now, with the index reflecting this trend to close down at $9157. There appears some scope for further declines across both Atlantic and Pacific basins in the coming week, although possibly not quite at the dramatic rate we have seen the past week or two” it mentioned.

Finally, on the Supramax/Handy markets, it was “another relatively quiet week, and one which saw a public holiday in the UK on Monday. The Supramax market saw Atlantic and Pacific basins diverge further as an active South American grain market countered falling cargo volumes in the East. Fronthaul business remains on a positive footing indicated by a 55,000 dwt vessel taking $19,000 per day from WAF, via ECSA to the Far East on Friday. S2, the NOPAC index, saw its values fall by 5.2% over the week however many participants see this as being a tame decline given the market sentiment - the 54,000 dwt “Nicolaos A” fixed CJK/New Zealand at a lofty $11,000 in the early sessions of the week. For the larger sizes, trade from the USG has been somewhat dour, however Handy owners operating in this routes have benefited from an increasingly active Trans-Atlantic trade which pushed the index over 6% week-on-week” it concluded.

Source : Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide