Tue Jan 15, 2013
* U.S. corn dips after longest rally since June
* Wheat rises for 3rd session as supplies tighten
* Dry weather threatens U.S. winter wheat crop
* Analyst Celeres raises Brazil soybean crop view
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Jan 15 (Reuters) - U.S. corn edged lower on Tuesday as the market took a breather after climbing to its highest in almost a month on tightening global supplies, while soybeans slipped following a 3 percent rally in the last session.
Wheat rose for a third day in a row on expectations of higher demand for U.S. supplies, with rival exporters Australia and Russia fast running out of surplus stocks.
Corn rose for the sixth consecutive session on Monday with support from a U.S. Department of Agriculture report which estimated inventories in the world's top exporter at a 17 year low.
The wheat market has jumped 3.4 percent since Friday, its biggest three-day gain since the end of November with additional support from a severe drought in the southern U.S. Plains that is curbing the winter crop yields.
"We are bullish on corn as supplies are going to tighten further," said Serene Lim, a commodities analyst at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore. "For wheat, the market will be closely watching the U.S. weekly export data as everyone is expecting U.S. exports to rise."
Chicago Board of Trade March corn fell 0.1 percent to $7.23 a bushel by 0259 GMT, after climbing to $7.26-3/4 a bushel on Monday, its highest since Dec. 17. March wheat rose 0.4 percent to $7.69-3/4 a bushel.
As of Dec. 1 the United States had 8.03 billion bushels of corn on hand, the USDA said in its monthly report on Friday, below even the low end of market expectations averaging 8.28 billion.
Inventories at the end of the crop's marketing year on Aug. 31 are estimated at a 17-year low of 602 million bushels, less than a three-week supply and almost 10 percent smaller than expected.
The soybean market rose more than 3 percent on Monday for the biggest daily bounce since August but prices came under pressure on Tuesday on forecasts of record production in Brazil.
March soybeans fell 0.1 percent to $14.16 a bushel, after rising to a high of $14.23 a bushel in the last session.
Brazil will likely harvest a record 80.43 million tonnes of soybeans this season, local crop analyst Celeres said on Monday, raising its forecast from 79.02 million tonnes a month earlier on a favourable climate outlook.
Area planted with soy should rise to 27.5 million hectares, up 9.5 percent from a year earlier according to Celeres' monthly report. Farmers favoured soy over corn and cotton due to high bean prices when they started planting late last year.
Rains forecast in most of Brazil's top soy-producing states this week should help the crop, but a dry period will hit the far south later this month, local meteorologist Somar said.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered its three-month forecast for soybean prices to $15.25 per bushel from $16.50, and its cut six-month forecast to $14 from $15.50. The bank left its 12-month price projection unchanged at $13.50.
Prices at 0259 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 769.75 2.75 +0.36% 870.07 54
CBOT corn 723.00 -1.00 -0.14% 766.01 71
CBOT soy 1416.00 -2.00 -0.14% 1577.74 70
CBOT rice $15.07 $0.01 +0.03% $15.47 40
WTI crude $94.03 -$0.11 -0.12% $89.12 74
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.338 $0.109 +8.84%
USD/AUD 1.056 0.000 +0.02%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Editing by Tom Hogue)
* U.S. corn dips after longest rally since June
* Wheat rises for 3rd session as supplies tighten
* Dry weather threatens U.S. winter wheat crop
* Analyst Celeres raises Brazil soybean crop view
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Jan 15 (Reuters) - U.S. corn edged lower on Tuesday as the market took a breather after climbing to its highest in almost a month on tightening global supplies, while soybeans slipped following a 3 percent rally in the last session.
Wheat rose for a third day in a row on expectations of higher demand for U.S. supplies, with rival exporters Australia and Russia fast running out of surplus stocks.
Corn rose for the sixth consecutive session on Monday with support from a U.S. Department of Agriculture report which estimated inventories in the world's top exporter at a 17 year low.
The wheat market has jumped 3.4 percent since Friday, its biggest three-day gain since the end of November with additional support from a severe drought in the southern U.S. Plains that is curbing the winter crop yields.
"We are bullish on corn as supplies are going to tighten further," said Serene Lim, a commodities analyst at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore. "For wheat, the market will be closely watching the U.S. weekly export data as everyone is expecting U.S. exports to rise."
Chicago Board of Trade March corn fell 0.1 percent to $7.23 a bushel by 0259 GMT, after climbing to $7.26-3/4 a bushel on Monday, its highest since Dec. 17. March wheat rose 0.4 percent to $7.69-3/4 a bushel.
As of Dec. 1 the United States had 8.03 billion bushels of corn on hand, the USDA said in its monthly report on Friday, below even the low end of market expectations averaging 8.28 billion.
Inventories at the end of the crop's marketing year on Aug. 31 are estimated at a 17-year low of 602 million bushels, less than a three-week supply and almost 10 percent smaller than expected.
The soybean market rose more than 3 percent on Monday for the biggest daily bounce since August but prices came under pressure on Tuesday on forecasts of record production in Brazil.
March soybeans fell 0.1 percent to $14.16 a bushel, after rising to a high of $14.23 a bushel in the last session.
Brazil will likely harvest a record 80.43 million tonnes of soybeans this season, local crop analyst Celeres said on Monday, raising its forecast from 79.02 million tonnes a month earlier on a favourable climate outlook.
Area planted with soy should rise to 27.5 million hectares, up 9.5 percent from a year earlier according to Celeres' monthly report. Farmers favoured soy over corn and cotton due to high bean prices when they started planting late last year.
Rains forecast in most of Brazil's top soy-producing states this week should help the crop, but a dry period will hit the far south later this month, local meteorologist Somar said.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered its three-month forecast for soybean prices to $15.25 per bushel from $16.50, and its cut six-month forecast to $14 from $15.50. The bank left its 12-month price projection unchanged at $13.50.
Prices at 0259 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 769.75 2.75 +0.36% 870.07 54
CBOT corn 723.00 -1.00 -0.14% 766.01 71
CBOT soy 1416.00 -2.00 -0.14% 1577.74 70
CBOT rice $15.07 $0.01 +0.03% $15.47 40
WTI crude $94.03 -$0.11 -0.12% $89.12 74
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.338 $0.109 +8.84%
USD/AUD 1.056 0.000 +0.02%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Editing by Tom Hogue)
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