14th Jun 2012, by Agrimoney.com
Strategie Grains called time on the long-running downward trend in forecasts for European Union wheat production, citing better hopes for harvests, including the disputed German crop.
The influential analysis group lifted by 1.5m tonnes to 124.2m tonnes its estimate of the region's soft wheat harvest.
While still well below the groups early-season hopes of a harvest above 133m tonnes, the upgrade contrasted with a succession of lowered hopes for the crop – including four successive monthly downgrades from Strategie Grains itself.
The US Department of Agriculture on Tuesday lowered its estimate for the EU wheat harvest, including the durum variety used to make pasta, by 1.0m tonnes to 131.0m tonnes.
Strategie Grains' lifted its forecast including durum by some 1.8m tonnes to 132.1m tonnes.
'Very good weather'
The improved forecast reflected "very good weather conditions", the Paris-based group said, flagging in particular western Europe, where an easing in rainfall in many areas had allowed farmers to apply agrichemicals needed to contain disease pressures.
The estimate for the French soft wheat crop was raised by 870,000 tonnes to a little over 35m tonnes, putting a rebound of more than 1m tonnes over last year dryness-effected crop in sight.
German output was pegged at 22.5m tonnes, up 520,000 tonnes from last month's estimate, after rains refreshed crops tested by a lack of a moisture earlier in the spring.
The upgrade contrasted with a cut of 700,000 tonnes, to 21.8m tonnes, by the USDA in its hopes for the German crop, while Deutsche Raiffeisenverband, the German farm co-operatives' association, on Wednesday cut its estimate for the crop by 700,000 tonnes to 21.3m tonnes.
There was "no clear signal" recent rains had revived crops, the association said.
Strategie Grains called time on the long-running downward trend in forecasts for European Union wheat production, citing better hopes for harvests, including the disputed German crop.
The influential analysis group lifted by 1.5m tonnes to 124.2m tonnes its estimate of the region's soft wheat harvest.
While still well below the groups early-season hopes of a harvest above 133m tonnes, the upgrade contrasted with a succession of lowered hopes for the crop – including four successive monthly downgrades from Strategie Grains itself.
The US Department of Agriculture on Tuesday lowered its estimate for the EU wheat harvest, including the durum variety used to make pasta, by 1.0m tonnes to 131.0m tonnes.
Strategie Grains' lifted its forecast including durum by some 1.8m tonnes to 132.1m tonnes.
'Very good weather'
The improved forecast reflected "very good weather conditions", the Paris-based group said, flagging in particular western Europe, where an easing in rainfall in many areas had allowed farmers to apply agrichemicals needed to contain disease pressures.
The estimate for the French soft wheat crop was raised by 870,000 tonnes to a little over 35m tonnes, putting a rebound of more than 1m tonnes over last year dryness-effected crop in sight.
German output was pegged at 22.5m tonnes, up 520,000 tonnes from last month's estimate, after rains refreshed crops tested by a lack of a moisture earlier in the spring.
The upgrade contrasted with a cut of 700,000 tonnes, to 21.8m tonnes, by the USDA in its hopes for the German crop, while Deutsche Raiffeisenverband, the German farm co-operatives' association, on Wednesday cut its estimate for the crop by 700,000 tonnes to 21.3m tonnes.
There was "no clear signal" recent rains had revived crops, the association said.
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