Source : Agritel
Wheat, harvest 2012, trades at nominal 207 €/t on a July basis for standard quality, delivery Rouen at the harvest.
Chicago wheat trades at an equivalent of €186.00/t for Sept 2012 delivery.
Durum wheat trades at 265/270 €/t nominal delivery Port La Nouvelle.
Rapeseed quotes at 468 €/t nominal FOB Moselle for short term delivery.
Feeding barley trades at nominal 197 €/t on a July basis.
Malting barley Sebastian market trades at 204 €/t nominal for new harvest FOB Creil.
Sunflower, harvest 2012, trades at 440 €/t nominal equivalent Saint-Nazaire.
Corn, 2011 harvest, trades at 202 €/t on a July 2011 basis FOB Bordeaux
The feeding pea market trades at 245 €/t nominal, August 2011 basis FOB Creil.
American Market
Soybeans and corn prices retreated yesterday, due to fears concerning the economic situation but also with the arrival of some rains in main production areas. However, these rains remain insufficient, and the main part of operators expects yields around 160 bushels per acre for corn instead of 166 bushels per acre expected by the USDA. Nevertheless, these yields added to the improvement of areas should allow a record production in the USA.
Funds were net sellers yesterday for 5.000 corn contracts, 6.000 soybean contracts and 1.000 wheat contracts.
Despite strong fundamentals, soybean complex prices retreated, funds selling long position before the electoral week end.
Corn, Sept 2012 contract, closed at $ 5.15 /bushel, -11.50 cents from previous trading day.
Wheat, Sept 2012 contract, closed at $ 6.3425 /bushel, -0.50 cents from previous trading day.
Soybeans, July 2012 contract, closed at $ 13.4325 /bushel, -20.75 cents from previous trading day.
Soymeal, for July 2012 delivery, closed at $ 401.20 /t, -6.60 USD from previous trading day.
Soy oil, for July 2012 delivery, closed at 49.46 cents/lb, -0.64 cents from previous trading day.
Black Sea Market
The 2012 Ukrainian harvest should significantly decrease for wheat and barley production. The total expected for grains should not exceed 46 Mt versus 56 Mt last year. Wheat fails at 12.9 Mt according Agritel expectations and barley at 7.8 Mt due to unfavorable climate conditions at the beginning of vegetative cycle for winter crops especially.
The main question is for corn, for which yields could be record in case of favorable climate conditions. While the range 22-27 Mt is often adverted, we currently expected 23.9 Mt for the 2012 harvest. For sunflower, plantings cover 5 Mha and operators expect the harvest between 8.5 and 9.5 Mt, with Agritel expectation at 8.8 Mt. So, oils production could increase and be close to 3.7 Mt, an impressive level.
Potential exports for the coming campaign should fluctuate between 22 and 24 Mt versus 21 to 22 Mt expected in 2011/2012 after difficulties due to the establishment of export taxes which limited Ukrainian wheat competitiveness compared to Russian wheat.
Have a good day
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