Fri Jun 29, 2012
* New-crop corn rises for five out of six sessions
* Dec. corn up almost 15 pct this week on U.S. drought
* Wheat up nearly 20 pct in 2 weeks on supply fears
* Coming Up: USDA's June stocks/acreage report; 1230 GMT
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, June 29 (Reuters) - Chicago corn bounced back on Friday, rising for five out of six sessions as a severe drought in the U.S. Midwest curbs yields of what was once estimated to be a record-large crop.
Soybeans added 0.7 percent after three consecutive sessions of losses, while wheat was little changed as investors squared positions ahead of a U.S. Department of Agriculture report on stocks and acreage.
"The general mood is very bullish as the Midwest drought is expected to worsen and result in lower yields," said Ker Chung Yang, commodities analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "The market is speculating lower output and it is pre-positioning before the report."
The new-crop December corn is on track for a record weekly gain of about 14 percent and a monthly rise of almost 22 percent after baking Midwest weather ignited a market rally.
Front-month wheat has climbed almost 20 percent in two weeks, the biggest two-week rally since August 2010, sparked by concerns over supplies from the Black Sea region and tracking corn higher. The most-active November soybean contract has added 2.6 percent this week, building on last week's rally of nearly 5 percent.
On Friday, Chicago Board of Trade December corn rose 0.4 percent to $6.35 per bushel by 0331 GMT, while November soy added 0.7 percent to $14.13-1/4 a bushel. September wheat was unchanged at $7.46 per bushel.
The USDA will release its quarterly grain stocks and annual acreage estimates on Friday and investors at the Chicago Board of Trade evened positions ahead of the reports.
Sizzling temperatures and a lack of rain are taking a heavy toll of the U.S. corn crop, with 12 analysts polled by Reuters expecting a yield 5.4 percent lower than the USDA's current figure.
The average estimate of the U.S. 2012 corn yield among analysts surveyed was 157 bushels per acre, 9 bushels less than the USDA's forecast of a record-high 166 bushels.
Don Keeney, a senior agricultural forecaster with Cropcast, a division of MDA EarthSat, said the midday U.S. weather model was a little wetter for Indiana and Ohio for this week than the morning forecast but was "not excessively wet by any means, instead of 1/4 of inch it gives them a 1/3."
Severe and moderate droughts were worsening in the southern Ohio River Valley, according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor released early Thursday.
About half of the corn in the United States, the largest producer and exporter of the No. 1 global grain, is likely to be in its most vulnerable phase of pollination by the end of next week and the dry conditions could cut production by the day.
U.S. wheat futures have been supported by concerns over lower output in the Black Sea region, even though the market was little changed on Friday.
The combined wheat crop of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will fall to 78.9 million tonnes this year, down 22 percent from 2011, with the biggest effect on yields from winterkill and spring drought in the Black Sea wheat powerhouses of Russia and Ukraine, a Reuters poll of 19 traders and analysts showed.
Prices at 0331 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 746.00 0.00 +0.00% -0.80% 669.58 75
CBOT corn 635.00 2.75 +0.43% +0.32% 564.07 71
CBOT soy 1413.25 9.75 +0.69% +0.09% 1351.11 66
CBOT rice $14.97 $0.06 +0.44% -0.27% $14.49 53
WTI crude $79.16 $1.47 +1.89% -1.31% $84.57 39
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.259 $0.010 +0.82% +0.71%
USD/AUD 1.014 0.008 +0.78% +1.35%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Reporting by Naveen Thukral;Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
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