4th Dec 2012, by Agrimoney
Australia retained an upbeat view of its wheat export prospects, saying that crops had not been as badly affected by dry conditions as many observers had thought, and forecasting a harvest above market expectations.
Australia's Abares commodities bureau, in a quarterly report, estimated its wheat exports at 20.9m tonnes, down some 600,000 tonnes from its last forecast, but will above figures from other forecasters.
Indeed, it is 4.4m tonnes above the estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, and would retain Australia its second place among world wheat exporters, behind the US, but ahead of Canada and the European Union.
The estimate follows observations of the relative competitiveness of Australian wheat which has made it particularly attractive to Asian buyers at a time of elevated prices of corn, an alternative in feed.
However, Abares' estimate also reflected a relatively upbeat view of the Australian harvest, with the bureau saying that winter crop yields "have held up reasonably well in many regions, despite the dry seasonal conditions experienced in the past few months".
"While total winter crop production is forecast to be lower than the record harvest of last season, yields in many regions were aided by favourable levels of lower layer soil moisture," Abares executive director Paul Morris said.
'Weak downgrade'
The bureau acknowledged lower prospects for the harvest in Western Australia, typically the top grain-growing state, where "rainfall was generally below average throughout the growing season and a dry October adversely affected yields in southern parts of the state".
The Western Australia wheat crop was downgraded by 255,000 tonnes to a below-average 6.86m tonnes.
But estimates for harvests in second-ranked New South Wales and in Victoria were held at levels made in September, with the national crop pegged at 22.0m tonnes, a downgrade of 507,000 tonnes.
"This downward revision is weaker than traders' expectations," Paris-based consultancy Agritel said, noting a market consensus of an Australian wheat harvest of about 21m tonnes.
The USDA last month downgraded its forecast for the crop to 21.0m tonnes.
'Sorghum a more attractive option'
Abares was relatively upbeat on barley exports too in 2012-13, pegging them at 4.67m tonnes, above a USDA estimate of 3.80m tonnes, and despite a weaker harvest estimate.
And, while cutting its forecast for its cotton crop to 945,000 tonnes (4.34m bales) the figure was higher than the 4.0m-bale estimate from USDA attaches in Canberra last week.
Although predicting a 26% drop in sowings, in response to falling cotton prices which "have made grain sorghum a more attractive option to producers", Abares said that the decline in sowings was skewed to less-productive dryland areas.
Australia retained an upbeat view of its wheat export prospects, saying that crops had not been as badly affected by dry conditions as many observers had thought, and forecasting a harvest above market expectations.
Australia's Abares commodities bureau, in a quarterly report, estimated its wheat exports at 20.9m tonnes, down some 600,000 tonnes from its last forecast, but will above figures from other forecasters.
Indeed, it is 4.4m tonnes above the estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, and would retain Australia its second place among world wheat exporters, behind the US, but ahead of Canada and the European Union.
The estimate follows observations of the relative competitiveness of Australian wheat which has made it particularly attractive to Asian buyers at a time of elevated prices of corn, an alternative in feed.
However, Abares' estimate also reflected a relatively upbeat view of the Australian harvest, with the bureau saying that winter crop yields "have held up reasonably well in many regions, despite the dry seasonal conditions experienced in the past few months".
"While total winter crop production is forecast to be lower than the record harvest of last season, yields in many regions were aided by favourable levels of lower layer soil moisture," Abares executive director Paul Morris said.
'Weak downgrade'
The bureau acknowledged lower prospects for the harvest in Western Australia, typically the top grain-growing state, where "rainfall was generally below average throughout the growing season and a dry October adversely affected yields in southern parts of the state".
The Western Australia wheat crop was downgraded by 255,000 tonnes to a below-average 6.86m tonnes.
But estimates for harvests in second-ranked New South Wales and in Victoria were held at levels made in September, with the national crop pegged at 22.0m tonnes, a downgrade of 507,000 tonnes.
"This downward revision is weaker than traders' expectations," Paris-based consultancy Agritel said, noting a market consensus of an Australian wheat harvest of about 21m tonnes.
The USDA last month downgraded its forecast for the crop to 21.0m tonnes.
'Sorghum a more attractive option'
Abares was relatively upbeat on barley exports too in 2012-13, pegging them at 4.67m tonnes, above a USDA estimate of 3.80m tonnes, and despite a weaker harvest estimate.
And, while cutting its forecast for its cotton crop to 945,000 tonnes (4.34m bales) the figure was higher than the 4.0m-bale estimate from USDA attaches in Canberra last week.
Although predicting a 26% drop in sowings, in response to falling cotton prices which "have made grain sorghum a more attractive option to producers", Abares said that the decline in sowings was skewed to less-productive dryland areas.
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