Thursday, 8 November 2012

Wheat gains as weather conditions threaten supply

8 NOV, 2012, ET BUREAU & AGENCIES
AHMEDABAD/SINGAPORE: Wheat rose in Chicago and Paris on Wednesday on speculation that global supplies will tighten as crop conditions deteriorate in the US because of dry weather while rain delays planting in many parts of Europe.

About 39% of the US winter wheat crop was in good or excellent condition as of November 4, the worst for the week since record-keeping began 27 years ago, the US Department of Agriculture said November 5.

The French soft wheat crop was 64% planted as of October 29, compared with 88% last year, crops office FranceAgriMer said November 2. In the UK, about 70% to 75% of wheat has been planted, according to crop-quality service CropMonitor.

"The wheat market now looks to have a clear sense of direction and could grind higher with poor winter wheat crop condition in the US and delayed French and UK plantings providing a supportive backdrop," Jaime Nolan-Miralles, an INTL FCStone commodity risk manager in Dublin, said on Wednesday in an emailed report.

"The macro uncertainty surrounding US elections will now dissipate." Wheat for delivery in December rose 0.6% to $8.825 a bushel by 4:38 am on the Chicago Board of Trade, after climbing to $8.83 a bushel, the highest since October 25.

In Paris, milling wheat for January delivery gained 1% to 274.25 euros ($352.47) a tonne on NYSE Liffe, after touching 274.50 euros, the highest ever for the contract.

Corn for December delivery rose 0.3% to $7.4325 a bushel in Chicago and soyabeans for January delivery were little changed at $15.1525 a bushel. Prices also climbed on expectations Barack Obama's re-election as president means the Federal Reserve will continue monetary stimulus, weakening the dollar and boosting demand for commodities, said Michael Creed, an agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.

"We'll likely see the continuation of a loose monetary policy," Creed said by phone from Melbourne. "That pushes down the value of the dollar and raises risk appetite, which generally is supportive of commodities."

However, in India, wheat output may remain stable this season due to remunerative prices and sufficient water availability. The output will be closer to previous year's 93.90 million tonne.

According to Indu Sharma, head of Karnal-based Directorate of Wheat Research, wheat acreage in some parts of the country might increase owing to good availability of water and favourable weather.

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