Wednesday 7 November 2012

GRAINS-Wheat eases after rally, soy market eyes LatAm weather

Wed Nov 7, 2012
* US wheat dips 0.5 pct after two days of gains

* Soybeans little changed, corn slips 0.3 pct

* Market eyes US election results, USDA report

* Supply concerns to support wheat, corn prices
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures slid on Wednesday, giving up some of the last two sessions' gains accumulated on concerns that adverse weather could curb supplies in top exporters the United States and Australia.

Soybeans were little changed after gaining 0.8 percent on Tuesday amid lacklustre trading in agricultural markets as investors awaited the result of the U.S. presidential election.

"It is bit of cautious trade before the results," said Ker Chung Yang, a senior investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "From the fundamental point of view, soybeans should come under pressure as South American weather is looking good for the crop."

Chicago Board of Trade December wheat fell 0.5 percent to $8.72-3/4 a bushel by 0307 GMT. November soy rose 0.1 percent to $15.18-1/4 a bushel and December corn lost 0.3 percent to $7.39 a bushel.

Asian shares were capped while the safe-haven yen gained on Wednesday as investors remained guarded against the risk of an indecisive outcome in the close-fought U.S. election, with early counting showing no clear winner.

Soybeans have tumbled more than 15 percent from the record top of $17.94-3/4 a bushel hit on September 4, but the market is finding support near $15 a bushel.

The soybean market has been under pressure on expectations of higher output in the United States and a favourable crop outlook in South America.

Reports of improved U.S. soybean yields in later-harvested fields should prompt the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday to raise its estimate of the drought-hit 2012 crop, analysts said. The global demand and supply forecasts will be released at 1330 GMT on Friday.

The weather in South America has been encouraging higher planting of soybeans this year but there were concerns over excessive rain in parts of Argentina.

Argentina's 2013 soybean crop may be 3 million to 6 million tonnes below earlier forecasts of 55 million to 56 million tonnes as repeated rain is disrupting sowing, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

U.S. wheat has gained for the last two days as the market was buoyed by the poor condition of the just-planted winter crop in the United States and the weather trouble in major exporters Australia and Argentina.

Traders were expecting an increase in demand for U.S. wheat amid the production problems and tightening supplies in Black Sea countries such as Ukraine.

"Export demand for U.S. wheat is likely to pick up as other suppliers have been drawing down their stocks," Ker said.

The U.S. corn crop shrank a little from last month to its smallest in six years, and stocks will remain the tightest in 17 years next summer despite high prices curbing demand, a Reuters poll of 26 analysts showed.

A dozen of the analysts expected reduced corn demand from the export and ethanol sectors and the U.S. livestock industry, where the cattle herd is the smallest in about 60 years and producers have stepped up hog slaughter.

Commodity funds bought 4,000 CBOT corn contracts on Tuesday, trade sources said. They bought 5,000 soybean contracts and bought 2,000 wheat.

  Prices at 0307 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg MA 30   RSI
  CBOT wheat     872.75    -4.25  -0.48%    -4.41%     873.50   52
  CBOT corn      739.00    -2.00  -0.27%   -10.29%     766.54   41
  CBOT soy      1513.50    -2.00  -0.13%    -7.22%    1580.99   39
  CBOT rice      $15.31   -$0.01  -0.10%    -3.86%     $15.48   59
  WTI crude      $88.13   -$0.58  -0.65%    -5.60%     $88.92   54
  Currencies                                               
  Euro/dlr       $1.281   $0.052  +4.26%    +4.28%
  USD/AUD         1.043   -0.012  -1.18%    -1.34%
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential

(Reporting by Naveen Thukral)

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