Monday, 1 October 2012

GRAINS-Corn jumps to 2-week high as stocks shrink, soy eases

Mon Oct 1, 2012
* Corn up 1 pct to 2-week top as supplies tighten

* Soy, wheat face pressure on economic concerns

* Expectations of corn supplies to shrink further
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Chicago corn climbed to a two-week high on Monday, building on last session's limit-up rally which was triggered by a U.S. report showing corn stockpiles shrank to less than 1 billion bushels for the first time in eight years.

Soybeans eased 1 percent, giving up some of last session's gains when the market was driven higher by the rally in corn futures even though the U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed a smaller-than-expected drop in ending stocks.

Wheat fell 0.7 percent and, along with soybeans, faced pressure from uncertainty about Spain's bailout and global economic growth which weighed on commodities, including oil and metals.

"It was quite a surprising report and I think there is more upside potential for corn as the market needs to ration demand with supplies set to tighten further," said Lynette Tan, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

Chicago Board of Trade December corn gained 1.1 percent to $7.64-3/4 a bushel by 0334 GMT, while November soy lost 1.1 percent to $15.83 a bushel. December wheat fell 0.7 percent to $8.96-1/4 a bushel.

Corn climbed by 40 cents, or 5.6 percent, on Friday after the USDA's survey of farmers and warehouses showed 988 million bushels of corn on hand -- 11 percent less than expected -- on Sept. 1.

With expectations among many traders for the USDA to trim its estimate of corn production in the Oct. 11 supply-demand report, corn futures could trend higher, at least until then.

The USDA has reduced its estimate of the corn crop in consecutive months due to the crushing blow from the worst drought in 56 years after seeding got off to a record pace with the promise of a bumper crop in the world's largest grain exporting nation.

Corn demand needs to be curbed to ensure there are sufficient buffer stocks in the country next summer in case of emergencies within or overseas.

Wheat futures jumped 5.5 percent on Friday, the strongest gain in three months, as the USDA said Sept. 1 stocks of the grain declined year-on-year, counter to trade expectations for an increase.

The quarterly report also showed the soybean stockpile at the Sept. 1 start of this marketing year was 29 percent, or 38 million bushels, larger than traders had expected.

Soybean futures have been in retreat in recent weeks as investors liquidated long positions after prices peaked. Investors were worried about anecdotal accounts of soybean yields being better than expected as the harvested advanced in the Midwest.

While export demand for soybeans has remained solid despite the high prices -- export sales are running at nearly 75 percent of the USDA target in the 2012/13 season (Sept/Aug) with 11 more months to go -- many traders are expecting the USDA to raise its soy yield estimate in its October report.

Commodity funds bought an estimated net 28,000 corn contracts on the day, the biggest net purchase by funds since June 26, according to trade sources. Commodity funds were net buyers of an estimated 18,000 soybean contracts and 7,000 wheat contracts, sources said.

Wheat and soybeans face pressure from global economic concerns.

Bank of Japan data showed on Monday that sentiment among big Japanese manufacturers worsened in the third quarter from the previous quarter, hit by a steady deterioration in export demand as Europe's debt crisis simmers and China's economy slows.

Uncertainty over when and whether Spain will seek external aid kept investors nervous.

Prices at 0334 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 896.25 -6.25 -0.69% +4.76% 890.83 56 CBOT corn 764.75 8.50 +1.12% +6.77% 780.26 56 CBOT soy 1583.00 -18.00 -1.12% +0.78% 1690.80 33 CBOT rice $15.43 -$0.04 -0.29% +1.75% $15.26 62 WTI crude $91.35 -$0.84 -0.91% -0.54% $94.96 37 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.282 -$0.003 -0.20% -0.26% USD/AUD 1.033 -0.003 -0.25% -0.40% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential

(Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Ed Davies)

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