Tuesday, 9 October 2012

GRAINS-Corn firms ahead of USDA report, soybean rise on bargain hunting

Tue Oct 9, 2012
* Corn firms ahead of Thursday's USDA report, expected to show yield cuts

* Soybeans rise on bargain hunting

* Wheat rises, supported by tight production outlook
By Colin Packham
SYDNEY, Oct 9 (Reuters) - U.S. corn rose on Tuesday for the first time in three sessions as the market readied for a U.S. Department of Agriculture report this week that is expected to show further cuts in yield projections, reducing harvest pressure that had squeezed prices.

Soybeans rose on bargain hunting, while wheat firmed for the second straight session on concerns over tight global supply.

December corn rose 0.3 percent to $7.44-1/4 a bushel, having slid 0.8 percent in the previous session. November soybeans rose 0.34 percent to $15.56-1/4 a bushel, having closed down marginally on Monday.

December wheat rose 0.49 percent to $8.65-1/4 a bushel, after closing up 0.4 percent the previous day.

"Corn has risen because of the expectation that the USDA report will show a reduction in yields," said Lynette Tan, analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

"Soybeans had fallen in the previous sessions, so I think today's rise is a correction to that."

MARKET READIES FOR USDA REPORT

Corn and soybeans have fallen back from record highs in recent weeks amid harvest pressure, but market attention has now shifted towards the USDA October crop production and supply demand report due on Thursday.

The USDA is expected show the 2012/13 corn harvest at the smallest in six years and corn supplies could dwindle to 17-year lows by the end of next summer as a result of the worst drought in 56 years, a Reuters poll showed.

Traders expect the USDA to increase its estimate for the U.S. soybean crop over the previous forecast thanks to some timely rains in September.

On average, 26 analysts polled by Reuters put this year's corn crop at 10.601 billion bushels, down 126 million bushels, or 1.2 percent, from the USDA's September outlook.

Analysts pegged ending stocks of corn for the current 2012/13 marketing year at 648 million bushels, down 85 million bushels, or 11.6 percent, from the September figure. It would represent the tightest supply since the 1995/96 marketing year.

The soybean crop was pegged at 2.759 billion bushels, based on the average in the Reuters survey. The average yield was seen at 37.006 bushels per acre, up 4.8 percent from a month ago.

The USDA will also release its latest weekly harvest progress report on Tuesday.

Traders said the corn harvest was probably from 60 to 65 percent complete by Sunday, up from 54 percent last week, while the soybean harvest is seen between 50 and 55 percent complete, up from last week's 41 percent.

WHEAT SUPPLY OUTLOOK TIGHTENS

Wheat continued to garner support from a tightening supply outlook, amid weather-affected production in Australia and Russia, the world's second- and third-largest exporters, respectively.

A Reuters poll last week forecast wheat production in Australia to fall by more than 1 million tonnes, or 5 percent, from the government's latest estimate of 22.5 million tonnes, and down 27 percent from last year's record high of 29.5 million.

Dry weather across the U.S. plains amid planting also added support to wheat.

  Grains prices at  0245 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg MA 30   RSI
  CBOT wheat     865.25     4.25  +0.49%    +0.90%     883.47   44
  CBOT corn      744.25     2.25  +0.30%    -0.50%     766.16   41
  CBOT soy      1556.25     5.25  +0.34%    +0.31%    1655.49   36
  CBOT rice      $15.32   -$0.04  -0.29%    +1.42%     $15.16   53
  WTI crude      $90.17    $0.84  +0.94%    +0.32%     $93.77   45
  Currencies                                               
  Euro/dlr       $1.298   $0.001  +0.08%    -0.41%
  USD/AUD         1.023    0.005  +0.49%    +0.52%
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential

(Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

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