Monday, 8 October 2012

GRAINS-Corn eases again, wheat rebounds on supply concerns

Mon Oct 8, 2012
* Corn dips, wheat up 0.6 pct, soy little changed

* Market eyes USDA report for price direction

* Supply concerns buoy wheat, corn under pressure

* Informa rises U.S. corn, soy harvest estimates
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Oct 8 (Reuters) - U.S. corn slid for a second consecutive session on Monday, as investors took into account analyst forecasts estimating higher production ahead of a key U.S. government report on supply and demand of agricultural products due out later this week.

Wheat rose 0.6 percent, recouping some of Friday's losses, as forecasts of dry weather this week in much of Australia's grain belt raised concerns about a further reduction in yields in the world's second largest exporter.

Timely rains in August, as the U.S. soybean crop was going through its critical development stage, have led many analysts to raise their estimates for yields and crop size.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture report, due to be released on Thursday, could determine the direction of prices, which have lost ground after hitting all-time highs this summer following a historic drought.

Private analytical firm Informa Economics expects the U.S. government to raise its forecasts for corn and soybean production.

On Friday, Informa said the USDA will likely raise its corn production forecast to 11.194 billion bushels, based on a yield of 127.0 bushels per acre.

Soybean production was seen at 2.86 billion bushels on a yield of 37.8 bushels per acre.

Commodity brokerage INTL FCStone also raised its corn and soybean forecasts last week as harvest reports topped expectations.

"Everyone seems to be having a consensus on the bean crop which is getting bigger: the question is how much," said Victor Thianpiriya, agricultural strategist at ANZ Bank in Singapore.

"But for corn, the market is split. I saw one estimate which was 120.8 bushels per acre and you are getting Informa coming out with 127 bushels."

Chicago Board of Trade December corn fell 0.3 percent to $7.45-1/2 a bushel by 0247 GMT, while December wheat added 0.6 percent to $8.63 a bushel.

November soy fell three-quarters of a cent to $15.50-3/4 a bushel. The front-month contract has lost almost 14 percent after climbing to a record of 17.94-3/4 a bushel on Sept. 4.

Chinese importers bought 180,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for shipment in the 2012/13 marketing year, the USDA said on Friday.

Traders are keeping a close watch on China, the world's biggest soy importer, as traders return from a week-long national holiday.

China's Dalian soybean futures fell more than 2 percent to 4,759 yuan, the lowest since August 21 as the market tracked last week's losses in the vegetable oil complex.

Speculators cut their net long position in U.S. soybean futures by 9.3 percent to the lowest level in nearly four months on reports of better-than-expected harvest yields in the Midwest.

The wheat market, however, is being supported by supply concerns arising out of Australia where the crop is suffering from lack of moisture.

"Only light, scattered rain is forecast for the east coast this week while Western Australia is expected to be dry," Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a report.

Australia's wheat production is likely to decline by more than one million tonnes from the government's most recent estimate, and fall 27 percent from last year's record crop, according to a Reuters poll.

Prices suffered their biggest weekly decline in four months last week as beneficial rains in the U.S. Plains were seen boosting the winter crop planting.

  Prices at 0247 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  MA 30   RSI
  CBOT wheat     863.00     5.50  +0.64%   873.18   45
  CBOT corn      745.50    -2.50  -0.33%   766.76   44
  CBOT soy      1550.75    -0.75  -0.05%  1582.23   35
  CBOT rice      $15.12    $0.01  +0.10%   $15.47   46
  WTI crude      $89.42   -$0.46  -0.51%   $88.96   39
  Currencies                                               
  Euro/dlr       $1.299   $0.070 
  USD/AUD         1.016   -0.040 
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential

(Editing by Miral Fahmy)

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