Dry bulk market still subdued, recovery not yet seen

Wednesday, 11 April 2012 |
The dry bulk market entered the new week after the past days of easter holidays in western countries in a subdued mood. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) didn’t manage to change, remaining stable compared to last week’s closing at 928 points. The slight increase of demand and rates for the larger dry bulk carriers was once again offset by falls in the smaller ship types, in a reversal of the pattern observed a few weeks ago, when it was the smaller dry bulk carriers which were leading the gains and the larger ones suffering losses.

Yesterday, the Capesize Index was up by 24 points to 1,531 points, followed by marginal gains of four points for the Panamax market. By contrast, the Supramaxes kept their falling trend, losing an additional 13 points to 936 points, while Handies were also down by 7 points to 540 points.

In terms of sentiment, during the first week of the month, Chinese iron ore fixtures were increased by an impressive 53% week on week, based on data compiled from Wells Fargo Securities. It was the highest level since February of 2011, with an upward direction in the average time charter earnings of capesize units. Chinese iron ore inventories are falling giving signs for a stronger support in capesize earnings, while supramax average time charter earnings are still hovering more than 37% above capesizes.

Meanwhile, as it was announced yesterday, China's imports of major commodities fell in March from a month ago, but defied expectations of large corrections to hover near recent highs, as companies built stocks in hopes the world's second-largest economy would pick up in the second quarter. Iron ore shipments were at 62.87 million tonnes, down just 3 percent from the 13-month high recorded in February. But analysts warned that stockpiles of copper and iron ore have already risen to lofty levels after months of feverish imports and China's appetite could ebb in the second quarter.

For China's commodities demand to stage a convincing rebound, Beijing must further loosen monetary policy and more crucially, relax a year-long clampdown on the property sector - a major driver of commodities consumption that made up 13 percent of gross domestic product in 2011. Traders and analysts reckon the government cannot afford to keep much longer property curbs that were choking off a crucial source of funds to local governments already swamped by loans.

In a separate note, issued here on Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, from Maria Bertzeletou, stated that “a positive sentiment is being fuelled in the iron market with Australian miner Fortescue, following the strong position of its rivals, stating that despite talks of slowdown, China’s economy is expanding at a relatively healthy pace, supporting demand for raw materials such as iron ore and steel for infrastructure development and consumer prod ucts. In the panamax market, there is still grain activity from South America moving cargoes to the Continent and Mediterranean, but rates are floating at steady levels with vessels earning $8,277/day, down by 1.3% week on week. The BPI ended at 1036 points, falling by 15 points from previous week, when at the week ending March 16th has recorded the biggest gains by moving upwards 82 points, 9.2% increase.

Even the positive prospects for smaller vessel sizes, supramax vessels have shown, during the last two weeks, a weaker performance with the BSI loosing this week 81 points, by falling to 949 points with vessels trading at $9,928/day, when last year they were floating at $15,345/day, up by 55% from the current levels and 83% higher than capesizes. However, strong signs for Chinese thermal coal activity, the large decline in Qinhuangdao coal stockpiles, the upcoming maintenance of the Daqin railway and seasonal restocking for peak summer demand will affect positively the supramax rates. One short term negative factor for the segment could be the announcement from BHP Billiton declaring that it can not meet its coal delivery obligations because of a strike by 3,000 workers at seven coal operations in Queensland and wet weather, which may cause a further downward sentiment in the supramax market.

The outperformance of the capesize segment among other vessel categories brings a positive feeling with no guarantees for its stability, since there is undoubted that China’s iron market sentiment for this year will pour biggest risk for capesize operators amid oversupply issues. One recent worrying sign is that Brazilian iron ore conglomerate, Vale, has decided to move in the idling of two of its very large ore carriers and delaying the delivery for two valemaxes from China Rongsheng Heavy Industries, due the slowdown of Asian demand” noted Bertzeletou, in a sign that Brazil’s commodities’ exports aren’t looking all that rosy, quite the opposite. In February, iron ore production in Brazil dropped by 24% in February, as per the latest data released by the country's iron ore producer's association. Brazil's mining companies exported 16.61 million metric tons of iron ore and pellets in February, down by more than 24% decline from 21,89 million metric tones exported during February 2011.

Source : Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide