Tuesday, 24 April 2012 |
The latest surge of demand for Panamaxes has led the dry bulk market to new higher ground on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reaching 1,090 points, up by 2.16%. The real "star" has been the Panamax market, which has surged by an impressive 32.77% since the start of the past week. As a result, a modern Panamax can now earn more per day than the much larger in size Capesize segment. Last week, Capesize average time charter earnings were down by 5.6%, versus an increase of 28.4% for the Panamax segment.
Capesizes are currently earning $6,598/day, $1,884/day less than handysizes, showing a decline of $394/day from a week ago, while panamaxes are earning $11,882/day, an increase of $2,618/day. At similar week in 2011, capesizes were earning $6,493/day, while panamaxes were earning $11,666/day. Supramaxes are trading at $10,667/day, up by $877/day from last week’s closing, 61% higher than capesize and 10% lower than panamax earnings. At similar week in 2011, supramaxes were getting $14,695/day, up by 38% from the current levels and 126% higher levels than capesizes. Handysize vessels are trading at $ 8,482/day; an increase by $281/day from last week, when at similar week in 2011 handysize units were earning $11,933/day.
In its latest weekly analysis of the shipping environment, shipbroker Golden Destiny mentioned that the Panamax market continues to gain from the South American grain season and fixture activity from coal demand ahead of the peak summer season. The low levels of Qinhuangdao coal stockpiles, around 5,5 million tons, due to ongoing maintenance in China’s coal Daqin Railway supports a surge in thermal coal fixture volume that boosts earnings for panamax vessels. Chinese coal imports show robust signs that provide a relief for panamax vessels. According to recently data released, China imported 21,4 million tons of coal in March, 4% more than imported in February and 137% more than imported in March 2011.
But it has to be said that “even the positive developments seen in China’s steel market and predictions for an ongoing iron ore appetite, the dry bulk market is still pressed from heavy ship supply that outpaces commodity demand with capesize average time charter earnings hovering at levels almost 80% lower than mid-December, in the region of $6,600/day from $32,000/day, with supramax and panamax earnings being in the excess of $10,000/day, when in March 2011 where at levels of excess $16,000/day. In the steel market, Chinese iron ore imports have shown a 6% increase for the first three months of the year from the first quarter of 2011. China imported approximately 187.2mt of iron ore, 10.1 more than imported during the first three months of 2011, which implies that China keeps their buying momentum despite the hefty iron ore port stockpiles, in the region of 97,6 million tons. In order to compensate for the decline in Indian iron ore exports and reduce its reliance on Australia and Brazil continues to import a growing amount of iron ore from minor exporters. One more positive sign for the recent upturn in capesize earnings is that Chinese mills have resumed their production by producing a large amount of steel. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Chinese steel mills produced a record 61.58 million tons of crude steel in March, 5.7mt (10%) more than produced in February and 2.18mt (4%) more than produced in March 2011. The momentum continues in April with daily crude steel output hitting a record 2.03 million tonnes in the first 10 days of this month, as per data from the China Iron Ore & Steel Association” concluded Golden Destiny.
In its weekly dry bulk report, Paris-based BRS commented on the Panamax market, by saying that the firming up of the market was mainly due to “a tight tonnage offering in the Atlantic, pushing the TA round from $9,000 to almost $14,000 per day. This surprised many players and is due to the active ECSA/USG market destined for China and India. Today the amount of tonnage is very tight in the market and owner are pushing rates up. It has been a long time since we saw an owners’ market such as this. East of Suez, the market was not that active but remained stable. The Nopac round is paying $11-11,500 per day and short period is starting to pick up a bit, with operators paying $12-12,500 for LME delivery North China redelivery worldwide. The ECSA market was paying $14,000 passing Singapore redelivery Singapore/Japan range” it said in the report.
Source : Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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