Dry bulk market stalls as trend is reversed

Thursday, 05 April 2012 |
The dry bulk market has halted its month-long rally, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating yesterday for a second consecutive session. Industry experts have identified the latest downturn in a fall of demand for smaller carriers, which in turn had been leading the rebound during the past couple of weeks. Yesterday, the BDI was down by 5 points to 926, points, with all markets down, apart from the Capesize segment, which rose once again to 1,475 points. By contrast, the Supramax market has been suffering the most during these past few days, losing an additional 25 points yesterday to 965 points.

"The dry bulk market has weakened significantly in 2012 year-to-date due to the Chinese New Year (holiday), continued robust fleet growth, and a softening in demand growth for imported commodities in China and Europe," Jefferies analyst Douglas Mavrinac said in a note, which was quoted by Reuters. Australian miner Fortescue Metals Group said despite talks of slowdown, China's economy is expanding at a relatively healthy pace, fuelling demand for raw materials such as iron ore and steel for infrastructure development and consumer products. "We expect steel production to ramp up going into the summer months, a situation we have not seen fully materialise yet, and think this will support the dry bulk market," Arctic Securities analyst Erik Nikolai Stavseth said in a quote from Reuters.

"While Chinese iron ore and steel inventories have declined modestly over the past several weeks, and while we believe increased Chinese iron ore fixtures could provide slight support for spot rates, we expect any improvement to be relatively modest," Wells Fargo senior analyst Michael Webber said in a note.

In a separate report, commenting on the Capesize segment, Shiptrade Services noted that there were “modest increase in rates for Capes this week with the BCI improving by 43 points closing at 1369. The weekly average of 4 TC routes also went upwards by USD 642 closing at USD 5,188. In the Atlantic basin although some fresh requirements came into the market, oversupply of tonnage halted rates from sufficient improvement. As a result the week closed with the fronthaul been done at USD 22,500 levels and NCSA/FEAST coal at USD 26 for second half April dates. Similar was the sentiment for the T/A round which closed at USD 3,250 recording an increase of USD 300. The Pacific market has pulled the rates up and the main reason of this improvement was the Australia iron ore trade which continued to cover some of the many available vessels at the area. Period activity went upwards by USD 500 closing at USD 10,500” said Shiptrade.

On the Panamax front, it noted that “the Atlantic market was considerably improved during this week. The USG seems booming as much coal coming out lately and the demand from Turkey for coal has driven T/A rates upwards. The rates for this kind of trips stabilized around 10500 aps plus around 400,000 balast bonus. ECSA grains charterers still entering the market with fresh requirements to PG-Japan range and the rates for Sing-Japan are now above 17 000 daily plus ballast bonus of 650-700,000 USD. In the Pacific Basin Far East / Aussie rounds closed at USD 7,5 K basis delivery South-Mid China. Sulphur charterers entered the market with requirements from North Pacific and the Nopac rounds closed at USD 8,000 region. The short period rates closed tic below 10,000 whereas one year period rates closed at usd 10,5 k for LME vessels” Shiptrade noted in its report.

Finally, on the Supramax market, “coal requirements reduced, whereas much of demand for Nickel ore traders. In the Atlantic Basin the fronthaul rates stabilized at USD mid-high teens from Med. For clean cargoes the rates were within 15-16 k depending on delivery/size etc whereas vessels able to carry dirties such as HBI got more than 17 k for trips out. From Continent the fronthaul rates are much lower. We heard that a tess 57 type got 13 k for grains biz via French Bay to Sing-Japan rge. In the Pacific Basin we noted much fewer coal requirements out of Indonesia and consequently the rates dropped 1-1,5 k since last week. On the contrary the Nickel Ore charterers pay more than 15 k basis delivery North China for round trips which is a considerable premium for ows who are reluctant to carry this commodity. Besides Many coal/nickel ore charterers entered the market looking for short period vessels with ows asking 12.5 k for tess 53 type against charterers high 11 k” concluded Shiptrade.

Source : Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide