Thu Sep 20, 2012
* Demand destruction, harvest pressure weigh
* Soy yields may be better than U.S. forecast
* U.S. moves release time for key crop reports
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans were little changed on Thursday, after rallying almost 2 percent in the last session, as expectations of higher-than-estimated yields and slowing demand kept a lid on prices.
Corn slid 0.3 percent on harvest pressure although supplies are expected to be tight following a historic U.S. Midwest drought, while wheat lost ground after Wednesday's gains.
Investors in the soybean market, which soared to a record top earlier this month amid a drought-fed rally, are closely watching the impact of high prices on demand. There are indications China, the world's top importer, may cut purchases.
China will carry on selling soybean reserves well into 2013 in a bid to contain food inflation and ease tight supplies caused by the worst drought in 56 years across the U.S. grain belt.
China buys about 60 percent of globally traded soybeans, and these reserve sales may reduce the amount it imports, but by a small margin as Beijing's stockpile is estimated to be equivalent to no more than one to two months of consumption.
China imported 4.42 million tonnes of soybeans in August, the lowest monthly level in 6 months, as record-high prices and reduced global supplies cut demand.
But soybeans have fallen sharply this week on expectations crop yields across the drought-stricken U.S. Midwest will exceed forecasts as harvesting achieves a record pace.
"I think there is a bit of pressure on prices because of the harvest," said Serene Lim, a commodities analyst at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore.
"But we are still bullish on U.S. crops and we are recommending to our clients to buy on any dips."
Chicago Board of Trade November soy rose 1 cent to $16.70-1/2 a bushel by 0326 GMT, while December corn lost 0.3 percent to $7.54-1/4 a bushel. December wheat fell 0.2 percent to $8.79-1/2 a bushel.
Late summer rains arrived in time to buoy the late planted U.S. soybean crop. Fourteen analysts polled by Reuters, on average, estimated a soybean yield of 35.85 bushels per acre, up from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Sept. 12 forecast of 35.3 bushels.
Commodity funds bought an estimated net 11,000 contracts of CBOT corn futures on Wednesday, trade sources said. They bought 3,000 wheat and bought 9,000 soybean contracts.
The wheat market is eyeing depleting stocks in Russia, the world's fourth largest exporter, after relentless sale in tenders over the past few weeks.
Iraq's state grains board purchased 150,000 tonnes of Russian-origin wheat in an international tender.
Although the market is expecting Russia, which is coping with a drought that has slashed grain harvests by more than a quarter, to curb exports, the government has maintained it will not cap sales.
The market noted news that the U.S. government will begin issuing major agricultural reports at midday, when Chicago trading is in full swing, abandoning the early morning release of the world's most important crop data after almost two decades.
After a months-long debate following the adoption of nearly around-the-clock futures trading, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Wednesday that from January it would release its market-moving U.S. crop forecasts and five other major reports at noon Eastern Time (11 a.m. Central).
Prices at 0326 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 879.50 -2.00 -0.23% +0.17% 892.70 51
CBOT corn 754.25 -2.25 -0.30% +0.84% 797.01 34
CBOT soy 1670.50 1.00 +0.06% +0.09% 1696.53 40
CBOT rice $15.10 -$0.03 -0.17% -1.28% $15.43 54
WTI crude $91.72 -$0.26 -0.28% -3.75% $95.50 26
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.302 -$0.003 -0.21% -0.74%
USD/AUD 1.043 -0.002 -0.18% -0.39%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Editing by Himani Sarkar)
* Demand destruction, harvest pressure weigh
* Soy yields may be better than U.S. forecast
* U.S. moves release time for key crop reports
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans were little changed on Thursday, after rallying almost 2 percent in the last session, as expectations of higher-than-estimated yields and slowing demand kept a lid on prices.
Corn slid 0.3 percent on harvest pressure although supplies are expected to be tight following a historic U.S. Midwest drought, while wheat lost ground after Wednesday's gains.
Investors in the soybean market, which soared to a record top earlier this month amid a drought-fed rally, are closely watching the impact of high prices on demand. There are indications China, the world's top importer, may cut purchases.
China will carry on selling soybean reserves well into 2013 in a bid to contain food inflation and ease tight supplies caused by the worst drought in 56 years across the U.S. grain belt.
China buys about 60 percent of globally traded soybeans, and these reserve sales may reduce the amount it imports, but by a small margin as Beijing's stockpile is estimated to be equivalent to no more than one to two months of consumption.
China imported 4.42 million tonnes of soybeans in August, the lowest monthly level in 6 months, as record-high prices and reduced global supplies cut demand.
But soybeans have fallen sharply this week on expectations crop yields across the drought-stricken U.S. Midwest will exceed forecasts as harvesting achieves a record pace.
"I think there is a bit of pressure on prices because of the harvest," said Serene Lim, a commodities analyst at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore.
"But we are still bullish on U.S. crops and we are recommending to our clients to buy on any dips."
Chicago Board of Trade November soy rose 1 cent to $16.70-1/2 a bushel by 0326 GMT, while December corn lost 0.3 percent to $7.54-1/4 a bushel. December wheat fell 0.2 percent to $8.79-1/2 a bushel.
Late summer rains arrived in time to buoy the late planted U.S. soybean crop. Fourteen analysts polled by Reuters, on average, estimated a soybean yield of 35.85 bushels per acre, up from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Sept. 12 forecast of 35.3 bushels.
Commodity funds bought an estimated net 11,000 contracts of CBOT corn futures on Wednesday, trade sources said. They bought 3,000 wheat and bought 9,000 soybean contracts.
The wheat market is eyeing depleting stocks in Russia, the world's fourth largest exporter, after relentless sale in tenders over the past few weeks.
Iraq's state grains board purchased 150,000 tonnes of Russian-origin wheat in an international tender.
Although the market is expecting Russia, which is coping with a drought that has slashed grain harvests by more than a quarter, to curb exports, the government has maintained it will not cap sales.
The market noted news that the U.S. government will begin issuing major agricultural reports at midday, when Chicago trading is in full swing, abandoning the early morning release of the world's most important crop data after almost two decades.
After a months-long debate following the adoption of nearly around-the-clock futures trading, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Wednesday that from January it would release its market-moving U.S. crop forecasts and five other major reports at noon Eastern Time (11 a.m. Central).
Prices at 0326 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 879.50 -2.00 -0.23% +0.17% 892.70 51
CBOT corn 754.25 -2.25 -0.30% +0.84% 797.01 34
CBOT soy 1670.50 1.00 +0.06% +0.09% 1696.53 40
CBOT rice $15.10 -$0.03 -0.17% -1.28% $15.43 54
WTI crude $91.72 -$0.26 -0.28% -3.75% $95.50 26
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.302 -$0.003 -0.21% -0.74%
USD/AUD 1.043 -0.002 -0.18% -0.39%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Editing by Himani Sarkar)
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