By: Esmarie Swanepoel
18th September 2012
PERTH (Mining Weekly) – Australia’s resources exports earnings were expected to fall from last year’s record of A$193-million as the value of exports decline on the back of weaker commodity prices, especially iron-ore and metallurgical coal.
The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) reported on Tuesday that exports earnings could fall by 2% to A$189-billion in 2012/13.
Energy commodities earnings were forecast to grow by 4% to A$81-billion as a result of a strong increase in earnings from liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal.
These increases would be offset by a decrease in export earnings from metallurgical coal, which was expected to drop 15% to A$26-billion. Mineral commodity earnings were also forecast to decrease by some 6% to A$108-billion, primarily as a result of a decrease in the export value of iron-ore. Decreases in export value were also forecast for aluminium, zinc, and nickel.
But despite weakening in global growth, the short-term export volume outlook for Australian resources and energy commodity remained robust.
“The latest forecasts of volumes and prices show two distinct trends,” said BREE executive director and chief economist, Professor Quentin Grafton.
“First; the prices of many resources have moderated from historic highs in 2011 and further declines are expected over the medium term in US dollar terms relative to these peaks. Second; Australian export volumes, especially in terms of bulk commodities, are growing rapidly and are expected to do so for several years to come.”
For the majority of major minerals and energy commodities export volumes were forecast to increase.
The largest increases in volumes are forecast for LNG, at 21%, thermal coal at 14%, metallurgical coal at 12%, and copper at 10%. Growth in exports volumes of iron-ore were also forecast to remain robust, increasing by 8% to over 500-million tons in 2012/13.
The forecast increase in LNG exports in 2012/13 reflected the start up of the Pluto LNG project, which would increase Australia's LNG capacity from around 20-million tons to over 24-million tons, said Grafton.
“This forecast, as emphasised in the macroeconomic outlook, is based on assumed improvements in world, OECD and Chinese economic growth in 2013 and the assumption that the Australian dollar will remain close to parity with the US dollar in 2013,” he added.
Edited by: Mariaan Webb
18th September 2012
PERTH (Mining Weekly) – Australia’s resources exports earnings were expected to fall from last year’s record of A$193-million as the value of exports decline on the back of weaker commodity prices, especially iron-ore and metallurgical coal.
The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) reported on Tuesday that exports earnings could fall by 2% to A$189-billion in 2012/13.
Energy commodities earnings were forecast to grow by 4% to A$81-billion as a result of a strong increase in earnings from liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal.
These increases would be offset by a decrease in export earnings from metallurgical coal, which was expected to drop 15% to A$26-billion. Mineral commodity earnings were also forecast to decrease by some 6% to A$108-billion, primarily as a result of a decrease in the export value of iron-ore. Decreases in export value were also forecast for aluminium, zinc, and nickel.
But despite weakening in global growth, the short-term export volume outlook for Australian resources and energy commodity remained robust.
“The latest forecasts of volumes and prices show two distinct trends,” said BREE executive director and chief economist, Professor Quentin Grafton.
“First; the prices of many resources have moderated from historic highs in 2011 and further declines are expected over the medium term in US dollar terms relative to these peaks. Second; Australian export volumes, especially in terms of bulk commodities, are growing rapidly and are expected to do so for several years to come.”
For the majority of major minerals and energy commodities export volumes were forecast to increase.
The largest increases in volumes are forecast for LNG, at 21%, thermal coal at 14%, metallurgical coal at 12%, and copper at 10%. Growth in exports volumes of iron-ore were also forecast to remain robust, increasing by 8% to over 500-million tons in 2012/13.
The forecast increase in LNG exports in 2012/13 reflected the start up of the Pluto LNG project, which would increase Australia's LNG capacity from around 20-million tons to over 24-million tons, said Grafton.
“This forecast, as emphasised in the macroeconomic outlook, is based on assumed improvements in world, OECD and Chinese economic growth in 2013 and the assumption that the Australian dollar will remain close to parity with the US dollar in 2013,” he added.
Edited by: Mariaan Webb
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