Monday 11 November 2013

Could Russia ape Ukraine as a big force in corn?

8th Nov 2013, by Agrimoney
Could Russia follow Ukraine in emerging as a major force in world corn exports?

The "persistently wet weather" which has this year held back Russia's wheat harvest, which the US Department of Agriculture on Friday downgraded by 2.5m tonnes to 51.5m tonnes, has done little to hamper the country growth as a corn grower.

Indeed, the USDA raised its forecast for the Russian corn crop to 2.5m tonnes, to a record high.

While the corn harvest, at 11.5m tonnes, is still relatively small compared with that of big producing countries such as the US, Brazil and China, it represents a rise of 40%  year on year on last year's result .

With that enough to allow record exports of 2.5m tonnes, it echoes the situation late in the last decade in Ukraine, which has in the last four years near-tripled production to 29.0m tonnes.

Ukraine's exports have soared from 5.1m tonnes to 18.0m tonnes over the same period, making it the third-ranked exporter, after the US and Brazil, and equal with Argentina.

Better result

The rise in Russia's output this year, from less than 4m tonnes in 2009-10, is in part down to the one-off effect of benign weather – for an autumn-harvested crop, at least.

"Although some of Russia's top corn-producing territories were subject to below-normal subsurface moisture reserves in mid-summer, the crop was not subject to the unusually high July and August temperatures that have reduced yield in several recent years," the USDA said.

However, the rise also reflects the growing popularity of the crop among growers, with the estimate of corn area upgraded to a record 2.25m hectares, on a harvested basis.

One major factor in boosting former Soviet Union corn production has been the availability of better-quality seed, with some producers turning to Canada for non-genetically modified varieties suited to a mid-continental, northern latitude climate.

The USDA pegged Russia's average corn yield at 5.11 tonnes per hectare – up 21% year on year.

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