Source :Barclays special report
3 September, 2012
Barclays expects Indian coal imports to pick up for the rest of this year, with H2 12 at 62 Mt
Commodity Online
Barclays is expecting Indian coal imports to total 101 mt in 2012 and 122 mt in 2013.
The Bank continues to say in a report that “Indian coal import s are up only moderately y/y (3%) and have lagged expectations, coming below targets set by the country’s own Central Electricity Authority (CEA). Indian imports totalled 48.5 mt in H12012.”
Within that, steam coal imports by power utilities were sluggish from April to June, totalling 12.67 mt (22% lower than the government’s target of 16.27 mt).
A number of issues continue to cap the expansion of imports: the depreciation of the rupee; scarcity of rail wagons; as well as latent power demand remaining unmet through a combination of power cuts.
That said, however, Barclays expects Indian coal imports to pick up for the rest of this year, with H2 12 at 62 Mt and 2013 up at 122 Mt, as:
--India has added 5.2 GW of electricity gene ration capacity between April and June (above the target of 3.8 GW). Out of this, thermal capacity is one of the largest beneficiaries, with 2.1 GW added in June alone. We expect these projects to meet latent power demand and increase thermal coal usage.
--Domestic production remains below target, given issues such as the slow pace of issuing forest clearances, which is delaying new projects coming online. Further, a shortage of wagons has meant that coal stocks at domestic mines are accumulating with limited dispatch frequencies, the Bank concluded.
3 September, 2012
Barclays expects Indian coal imports to pick up for the rest of this year, with H2 12 at 62 Mt
Commodity Online
Barclays is expecting Indian coal imports to total 101 mt in 2012 and 122 mt in 2013.
The Bank continues to say in a report that “Indian coal import s are up only moderately y/y (3%) and have lagged expectations, coming below targets set by the country’s own Central Electricity Authority (CEA). Indian imports totalled 48.5 mt in H12012.”
Within that, steam coal imports by power utilities were sluggish from April to June, totalling 12.67 mt (22% lower than the government’s target of 16.27 mt).
A number of issues continue to cap the expansion of imports: the depreciation of the rupee; scarcity of rail wagons; as well as latent power demand remaining unmet through a combination of power cuts.
That said, however, Barclays expects Indian coal imports to pick up for the rest of this year, with H2 12 at 62 Mt and 2013 up at 122 Mt, as:
--India has added 5.2 GW of electricity gene ration capacity between April and June (above the target of 3.8 GW). Out of this, thermal capacity is one of the largest beneficiaries, with 2.1 GW added in June alone. We expect these projects to meet latent power demand and increase thermal coal usage.
--Domestic production remains below target, given issues such as the slow pace of issuing forest clearances, which is delaying new projects coming online. Further, a shortage of wagons has meant that coal stocks at domestic mines are accumulating with limited dispatch frequencies, the Bank concluded.
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