Mon Sep 10, 2012
* Wheat gains for third day, market eyes Russia
* Soy drops for five out of six sessions as rain helps U.S. crop
* USDA to update crop estimates on Wednesday
* China's August soy imports fall by quarter
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Chicago soybeans edged lower on Monday, falling for five out of six sessions on hopes that late season rains in the United States would help salvage some of an oilseed crop battered by devastating drought across the grain belt.
Wheat rose for a third straight session on expectations Russia, the world's fourth largest exporter, would soon announce export curbs and as adverse weather hit crops in Australia, the No. 2 supplier.
U.S. grain markets will this week look to a government report updating crop damage from the worst drought in half a century, which could also help settle debate over whether rainfall last month helped the soybean crop.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly supply-demand report on Wednesday could provide insight into whether the price rally to record highs this summer has legs to run for longer.
The market is also factoring in lower soybean imports by China, the world's top importer.
China imported 4.42 million tonnes of soybeans in August, the lowest monthly level in 6 months, as record-high prices and reduced global supplies cut demand.
Chicago Board of Trade new-crop November soy had dropped 0.2 percent to $17.33-3/4 a bushel by 0316 GMT, while December wheat added 0.3 percent to $9.08 a bushel.
December corn gave up 0.2 percent to $7.97-3/4 a bushel.
BIG IN BRAZIL
A lower-than-expected U.S. production forecast from closely followed analytical firm Informa Economics lifted soybeans from early lows on Friday, but the market has remained under pressure ahead of the USDA report. It cut its soy crop forecast by 5 percent to 2.639 billion bushels.
Private analysts on average expected the USDA to trim its crop forecast to 2.657 billion bushels from 2.692 billion in August, although some expected a slight increase because of rains in recent weeks across northern and eastern Midwest.
"Informa's September yield estimate has been very close to the USDA's forecast, people see is as quite reliable," said Brett Cooper, a senior manager of markets at FCStone Australia.
There are early forecasts of record-sized soybean output in Brazil, the world's second largest exporter, with record prices encouraging farmers to plant more.
"Some private forecasters are coming out with estimates of the largest-ever South American soybean crop," Cooper said.
CBOT soybeans set a record high of $17.94-3/4 on Sept 4 and were firmly on the uptrend until brokerage INTL FCStone on Thursday raised its soybean yield estimate to 36.7 bushels per acre from its August forecast of 36.2 bushels.
The wheat market has been supported by the likely cut in Russian exports.
"We are still waiting to hear any official message on curbing Russian wheat exports, but the market is already (factoring this in) as values have strengthened significantly," Cooper said.
Dry weather in key production areas of Australia, the world's No. 2 exporter, and a dry pattern in the southern U.S. Plains wheat belt ahead of autumn planting added support.
CBOT corn futures hit a record high of $8.43-3/4 per bushel during last month's USDA report, and prices have largely stagnated around the $8 level since then waiting for fresh evidence of yield loss due to the drought.
Prices at 0316 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 908.00 3.00 +0.33% 874.68 55
CBOT corn 797.75 -1.75 -0.22% 768.50 41
CBOT soy 1733.75 -2.75 -0.16% 1588.33 41
CBOT rice $14.88 -$0.08 -0.50% $15.46 34
WTI crude $96.25 -$0.17 -0.18% $89.19 59
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.279 $0.049 +4.03%
USD/AUD 1.036 -0.019 -1.80%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Joseph Radford)
* Wheat gains for third day, market eyes Russia
* Soy drops for five out of six sessions as rain helps U.S. crop
* USDA to update crop estimates on Wednesday
* China's August soy imports fall by quarter
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Chicago soybeans edged lower on Monday, falling for five out of six sessions on hopes that late season rains in the United States would help salvage some of an oilseed crop battered by devastating drought across the grain belt.
Wheat rose for a third straight session on expectations Russia, the world's fourth largest exporter, would soon announce export curbs and as adverse weather hit crops in Australia, the No. 2 supplier.
U.S. grain markets will this week look to a government report updating crop damage from the worst drought in half a century, which could also help settle debate over whether rainfall last month helped the soybean crop.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly supply-demand report on Wednesday could provide insight into whether the price rally to record highs this summer has legs to run for longer.
The market is also factoring in lower soybean imports by China, the world's top importer.
China imported 4.42 million tonnes of soybeans in August, the lowest monthly level in 6 months, as record-high prices and reduced global supplies cut demand.
Chicago Board of Trade new-crop November soy had dropped 0.2 percent to $17.33-3/4 a bushel by 0316 GMT, while December wheat added 0.3 percent to $9.08 a bushel.
December corn gave up 0.2 percent to $7.97-3/4 a bushel.
BIG IN BRAZIL
A lower-than-expected U.S. production forecast from closely followed analytical firm Informa Economics lifted soybeans from early lows on Friday, but the market has remained under pressure ahead of the USDA report. It cut its soy crop forecast by 5 percent to 2.639 billion bushels.
Private analysts on average expected the USDA to trim its crop forecast to 2.657 billion bushels from 2.692 billion in August, although some expected a slight increase because of rains in recent weeks across northern and eastern Midwest.
"Informa's September yield estimate has been very close to the USDA's forecast, people see is as quite reliable," said Brett Cooper, a senior manager of markets at FCStone Australia.
There are early forecasts of record-sized soybean output in Brazil, the world's second largest exporter, with record prices encouraging farmers to plant more.
"Some private forecasters are coming out with estimates of the largest-ever South American soybean crop," Cooper said.
CBOT soybeans set a record high of $17.94-3/4 on Sept 4 and were firmly on the uptrend until brokerage INTL FCStone on Thursday raised its soybean yield estimate to 36.7 bushels per acre from its August forecast of 36.2 bushels.
The wheat market has been supported by the likely cut in Russian exports.
"We are still waiting to hear any official message on curbing Russian wheat exports, but the market is already (factoring this in) as values have strengthened significantly," Cooper said.
Dry weather in key production areas of Australia, the world's No. 2 exporter, and a dry pattern in the southern U.S. Plains wheat belt ahead of autumn planting added support.
CBOT corn futures hit a record high of $8.43-3/4 per bushel during last month's USDA report, and prices have largely stagnated around the $8 level since then waiting for fresh evidence of yield loss due to the drought.
Prices at 0316 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 908.00 3.00 +0.33% 874.68 55
CBOT corn 797.75 -1.75 -0.22% 768.50 41
CBOT soy 1733.75 -2.75 -0.16% 1588.33 41
CBOT rice $14.88 -$0.08 -0.50% $15.46 34
WTI crude $96.25 -$0.17 -0.18% $89.19 59
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.279 $0.049 +4.03%
USD/AUD 1.036 -0.019 -1.80%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Joseph Radford)
No comments:
Post a Comment