Thu Aug 9, 2012
* Traders position for latest USDA forecast on Friday
* Weather concerns buoy soybeans
* Wheat shrugs off Russian assurance of no export ban
By Colin Packham
SYDNEY, Aug 9 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans extended gains into a second session on Thursday as the market readied for a supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, while weather concerns for new-crop oilseed production fed bullish sentiment in grains.
Corn rose, gaining for a second day after a two-day sell-off, while wheat tracked higher on worries that grain production in the Black Sea, which normally supplies around a quarter of world wheat exports, would be hit by hot, dry weather.
Chicago Board Of Trade November soybeans rose 0.41 percent to $15.87-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 1.5 percent.
New-crop corn rose 0.4 percent to $8.19-3/4, extending grains for the previous two sessions to nearly 2 percent following a two-day sell-off.
Spot wheat rose 0.39 percent to $9.02-1/4 a bushel after closing Wednesday up 1.1 percent.
"We do have the USDA numbers coming out tomorrow night, and the market is trying to position itself for that," Michael Creed, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank said.
"There's also the concern about the level of rainfall required, and the level actually received. There is a huge mismatch there, so there's quite a bit of bullish sentiment pushing the grains complex higher."
MARKET EXPECTS USDA YIELD CUTS
Despite some wet weather across the U.S. Midwest last weekend, with more expected on Thursday, analysts remain concerned over the potential yield damage to new-crop soybeans.
More rains are needed, analysts warned, following recent weeks of unrelenting heat.
July was the hottest month on record in the continental United States, surpassing even the devastating Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the U.S. government said on Wednesday.
Analysts expect the USDA to cut its estimate for new-crop U.S. soybean production and slash its projections for corn.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters, on average, estimate the U.S. corn yield at 127.3 bushels per acre, which would be the lowest since 1997. The USDA pegged the yield at 146 bushels per acre.
RUSSIAN MINISTER ASSURES MARKET ON WHEAT SUPPLIES
Wheat climbed on Thursday, shrugging off assurances from Russia's deputy prime minister that there were no grounds for measures to limit wheat exports, with new-crop stocks sufficient to ensure the country had enough grain for internal consumption.
However, analysts continue to expect tight Black Sea wheat production.
A Reuters poll this week found wheat production from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will drop 30 percent from last year because of a drought.
The median forecast from analysts and traders puts the aggregate crop for the three Black Sea exporting countries at around 70 million tonnes, versus around 100 million last year.
Grains prices at 0357 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 902.75 3.50 +0.39% +37.40% 622.75 59
CBOT corn 819.75 3.25 +0.40% +24.49% 615.92 61
CBOT soy 1587.75 6.50 +0.41% +29.35% 1167.24 45
CBOT rice $15.66 -$0.03 -0.16% +6.93% $14.47 53
WTI crude $93.58 $0.23 +0.25% -9.11% $98.64 67
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.238 -$0.057 -4.37% -5.16%
USD/AUD 1.060 0.023 +2.22% +2.19%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
* Traders position for latest USDA forecast on Friday
* Weather concerns buoy soybeans
* Wheat shrugs off Russian assurance of no export ban
By Colin Packham
SYDNEY, Aug 9 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans extended gains into a second session on Thursday as the market readied for a supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, while weather concerns for new-crop oilseed production fed bullish sentiment in grains.
Corn rose, gaining for a second day after a two-day sell-off, while wheat tracked higher on worries that grain production in the Black Sea, which normally supplies around a quarter of world wheat exports, would be hit by hot, dry weather.
Chicago Board Of Trade November soybeans rose 0.41 percent to $15.87-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 1.5 percent.
New-crop corn rose 0.4 percent to $8.19-3/4, extending grains for the previous two sessions to nearly 2 percent following a two-day sell-off.
Spot wheat rose 0.39 percent to $9.02-1/4 a bushel after closing Wednesday up 1.1 percent.
"We do have the USDA numbers coming out tomorrow night, and the market is trying to position itself for that," Michael Creed, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank said.
"There's also the concern about the level of rainfall required, and the level actually received. There is a huge mismatch there, so there's quite a bit of bullish sentiment pushing the grains complex higher."
MARKET EXPECTS USDA YIELD CUTS
Despite some wet weather across the U.S. Midwest last weekend, with more expected on Thursday, analysts remain concerned over the potential yield damage to new-crop soybeans.
More rains are needed, analysts warned, following recent weeks of unrelenting heat.
July was the hottest month on record in the continental United States, surpassing even the devastating Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the U.S. government said on Wednesday.
Analysts expect the USDA to cut its estimate for new-crop U.S. soybean production and slash its projections for corn.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters, on average, estimate the U.S. corn yield at 127.3 bushels per acre, which would be the lowest since 1997. The USDA pegged the yield at 146 bushels per acre.
RUSSIAN MINISTER ASSURES MARKET ON WHEAT SUPPLIES
Wheat climbed on Thursday, shrugging off assurances from Russia's deputy prime minister that there were no grounds for measures to limit wheat exports, with new-crop stocks sufficient to ensure the country had enough grain for internal consumption.
However, analysts continue to expect tight Black Sea wheat production.
A Reuters poll this week found wheat production from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will drop 30 percent from last year because of a drought.
The median forecast from analysts and traders puts the aggregate crop for the three Black Sea exporting countries at around 70 million tonnes, versus around 100 million last year.
Grains prices at 0357 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 902.75 3.50 +0.39% +37.40% 622.75 59
CBOT corn 819.75 3.25 +0.40% +24.49% 615.92 61
CBOT soy 1587.75 6.50 +0.41% +29.35% 1167.24 45
CBOT rice $15.66 -$0.03 -0.16% +6.93% $14.47 53
WTI crude $93.58 $0.23 +0.25% -9.11% $98.64 67
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.238 -$0.057 -4.37% -5.16%
USD/AUD 1.060 0.023 +2.22% +2.19%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
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