27th Jul 2012, by Agrimoney
The Black Sea region's grip on world wheat exports took another knock with a warning of a drop in Romanian shipments, where hot weather has cut the harvest by 30%, besides damaging corn and sunflower crops.
Romania faces a slump to 4.95m tonnes, from 7.2m tonnes, in its wheat harvest this year thanks to a long spell of hot weather, interrupted only by a wet May, US Department of Agriculture staff in Bucharest said.
"The impact of the dry period remained visible in wheat height and density," they said in a report. Their estimate was lower than the 5.3m tonnes forecast by the International Grains Council on Thursday.
The decline, and farmer hoarding spurred by rising prices, have cut the supplies available to export from a country which achieved prominence last season in securing shipments to Egypt, after winning approval as a wheat provider to the world's top importer of the grain.
"Given the market attitudes of producers, less wheat volume is expected to flow into export channels," the USDA staff said.
Regional setbacks
The comments continue a drop in expectations for wheat shipments from a Black Sea region, especially Russia and Ukraine, which has come to represent a source of ready and competitively-priced supplies of the grain.
In Ukraine, where wheat production hopes have been slashed thanks to winterkill and extended dry weather, Ukrainian Agribusiness Club sees exports falling to 2.5m tonnes this season, from 5.3m tonnes in the newly-finished 2011-12.
Ukraine, which chalked up wheat exports of 13.3m tonnes four seasons ago, achieved wheat shipments of 4.3m tonnes in the notorious drought season of 2010-11.
Crop downgrades
Russia - where a food security committee chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich will on August 8 hold a meeting on grains - continues to be surrounded by talk of an export ban, despite efforts by the like of the Russia Grain Union industry group to downplay the threat.
At US broker Market 1, Mike Mawdsley said: "Will Russia tax or ban exports? Looks like they aren't yet.
"But stay tuned, this could be a very bullish development for wheat if Russia decides to restrict to tax their sales,"
Russia's state forecaster on Friday cut to 77m-80m tonnes, from 83m-86m tonnes, its forecast for Russia's grains harvest, citing drought, if remaining above an International Grains Council estmate of 76.9m tonnes.
Kazakhstan on Monday cut its forecast for its grains harvest to 12.8m tonnes, approaching a post-Soviet low.
'Stressed plants noticeably'
The USDA staff also warned that dry weather had "stressed corn plants noticeably", noting that some farmers have warned of yields losses of up to 50% if rain does not arrive this month.
Romania's corn crop, the European Union's second biggest, and ranking in the global top 10, was pegged at 8.8m tonnes, a decline of 16.2% year on year, if above some other estimates.
Attempts to rebuild an oilseeds harvest by sowing sunflowers - after winterkill left only 85,000 hectares of rapeseed surviving in the spring from 360,000 hectares sown in the autumn – had also snagged on the hot weather.
While sunflower sowings had risen by 12% above 1.1m hectares, boosted by plantings on ploughed-in rapeseed fields, "the additional acreage is unlikely to be translated into much additional output", the bureau said.
"The average yield is expected to drop to 1.5 tonne per hectare compared to 1.8 tonne per hectare last year. Similar to corn, if no precipitation is received soon, the crop situation will decline further."
The Black Sea region's grip on world wheat exports took another knock with a warning of a drop in Romanian shipments, where hot weather has cut the harvest by 30%, besides damaging corn and sunflower crops.
Romania faces a slump to 4.95m tonnes, from 7.2m tonnes, in its wheat harvest this year thanks to a long spell of hot weather, interrupted only by a wet May, US Department of Agriculture staff in Bucharest said.
"The impact of the dry period remained visible in wheat height and density," they said in a report. Their estimate was lower than the 5.3m tonnes forecast by the International Grains Council on Thursday.
The decline, and farmer hoarding spurred by rising prices, have cut the supplies available to export from a country which achieved prominence last season in securing shipments to Egypt, after winning approval as a wheat provider to the world's top importer of the grain.
"Given the market attitudes of producers, less wheat volume is expected to flow into export channels," the USDA staff said.
Regional setbacks
The comments continue a drop in expectations for wheat shipments from a Black Sea region, especially Russia and Ukraine, which has come to represent a source of ready and competitively-priced supplies of the grain.
In Ukraine, where wheat production hopes have been slashed thanks to winterkill and extended dry weather, Ukrainian Agribusiness Club sees exports falling to 2.5m tonnes this season, from 5.3m tonnes in the newly-finished 2011-12.
Ukraine, which chalked up wheat exports of 13.3m tonnes four seasons ago, achieved wheat shipments of 4.3m tonnes in the notorious drought season of 2010-11.
Crop downgrades
Russia - where a food security committee chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich will on August 8 hold a meeting on grains - continues to be surrounded by talk of an export ban, despite efforts by the like of the Russia Grain Union industry group to downplay the threat.
At US broker Market 1, Mike Mawdsley said: "Will Russia tax or ban exports? Looks like they aren't yet.
"But stay tuned, this could be a very bullish development for wheat if Russia decides to restrict to tax their sales,"
Russia's state forecaster on Friday cut to 77m-80m tonnes, from 83m-86m tonnes, its forecast for Russia's grains harvest, citing drought, if remaining above an International Grains Council estmate of 76.9m tonnes.
Kazakhstan on Monday cut its forecast for its grains harvest to 12.8m tonnes, approaching a post-Soviet low.
'Stressed plants noticeably'
The USDA staff also warned that dry weather had "stressed corn plants noticeably", noting that some farmers have warned of yields losses of up to 50% if rain does not arrive this month.
Romania's corn crop, the European Union's second biggest, and ranking in the global top 10, was pegged at 8.8m tonnes, a decline of 16.2% year on year, if above some other estimates.
Attempts to rebuild an oilseeds harvest by sowing sunflowers - after winterkill left only 85,000 hectares of rapeseed surviving in the spring from 360,000 hectares sown in the autumn – had also snagged on the hot weather.
While sunflower sowings had risen by 12% above 1.1m hectares, boosted by plantings on ploughed-in rapeseed fields, "the additional acreage is unlikely to be translated into much additional output", the bureau said.
"The average yield is expected to drop to 1.5 tonne per hectare compared to 1.8 tonne per hectare last year. Similar to corn, if no precipitation is received soon, the crop situation will decline further."
No comments:
Post a Comment