Despite rain worry, minister hopes for normal grain output

BS Reporter / Mumbai Jun 26, 2012,
Despite three weeks of below normal rainfall this monsoon, foodgrain production is likely to remain the same as last year, says food and public distribution minister K V Thomas.

On the sidelines of a seminar here on Monday, he said, “We are concerned with the lower rainfall estimates. But, foodgrain production would remain the same as last year.”

During the July 2011 to June 2012 season, total foodgrain production was recorded at around 253 million tonnes (mt) as against 235 mt in the previous year.

This season’s rainfall was 36 per cent below the long term average (LTA) in the first week, followed by 50 per cent and 24 per cent lower in the second and third weeks. The impact of such a deficiency on kharif sowing can be severe. Uneven distribution of rain and delay holds back sowing of major kharif crops such as cereals (paddy) and oilseeds such as soybean and groundnut. Around 60 per cent of the area under major crops across the country is rain-fed. Also, the distribution of monsoon rain sets the trend for rabi sowing, which controls sensitive commodities, such as pulses and wheat.

The India Meteorological Department has revised its rainfall forecast lower from the earlier 98 per cent of the LTA in the first week of June to 96 per cent in the second. Thomas hinted at a further decline in the forecast.

The food ministry says it has allocated Rs 5,000 crore to states this year to start the process of creating 31 mt of additional storage. It had allocated Rs 2,000 crore last year for creating nine mt of storage. Under the scheme, state governments would be an intermediaries, lifting grain from Food Corporation of India godowns and holding stock until chanellised distribution takes place. States are also being urged to lift a quantity equivalent to six months’ distribution from the ration shop system.

As on June 1, as much as 82 mt of foodgrain was in the central pool controlled by the FCI, as against the scientific storage facility of 64 mt. The requirement for the Public Distribution System and the Food Security Bill’s requirements would be a combined 60-61 mt.

Rajiv Agarwal, secretary to the ministry, said the government had planned to allow 1.5-2 mt of additional rice exports but not in a hurry. “We would focus on our domestic supply first,” he added.