Monday, 15 April 2013

GRAINS-Wheat, corn ease on weaker Chinese data; soy near 2-wk top

Mon Apr 15, 2013
* Corn futures fall for 1st time in six sessions

* Soybeans near 2-week top on firm cash market

* China's Q1 GDP growth eases to 7.7 pct yr/yr
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat slid almost 1 percent on Monday, giving up some of last session's strong gains, while corn snapped a five-session winning streak as
slowing growth in China triggered a broad-based decline in commodities.

Soybeans were little changed, holding near Friday's two-week high on tight supplies and higher prices in the physical market.

China's economic recovery unexpectedly stumbled in the first three months of 2013 as the annual rate of growth eased back to 7.7 percent from the 7.9 percent pace set in the final quarter
of last year, official data showed on Monday.

The figures, announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, were weaker than market expectations in the consensus Reuters poll of a 8.0 percent expansion.

"China's weaker-than-expected GDP is contributing to the risk-off attitude," said Luke Mathews, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "It is likely to be a
negative influence for the agricultural markets."

Chicago Board of Trade May wheat fell 0.9 percent to $7.08-1/4 a bushel by 0304 GMT and May corn lost 0.8 percent to $6.53-1/2 a bushel. May soybeans dipped 0.07 percent to $14.12 a bushel, near Friday's peak of $14.19.

Commodities dropped across the board after bearish Chinese data, with crude oil slipping about $2 a barrel, gold shedding almost 1 percent and London copper hitting an 8-month low.

But losses in the agricultural market were limited by bullish fundamentals which drove wheat, corn and soybeans higher last week.

U.S. wheat futures rose 2.4 percent on Friday, rallying through key technical resistance amid signs of good export demand and worries about the health of the U.S. crop after
winter storms.

Agricultural meteorologists say temperatures this week might fall to the 20-to-30-degree Fahrenheit range in the U.S. Plains hard red winter wheat region, posing a threat of more freeze
damage to the growing crop.

Some hard red winter wheat, which has struggled with dry soils since planting, has already suffered damage during the last week due to wintry conditions in the Plains, analysts said.

Chinese buying is providing additional support to wheat.

China's largest purchase of U.S. soft red winter wheat in at least nine years was confirmed by the U.S. Agriculture Department last week and should be followed by more big purchases this year as Beijing rebuilds depleted reserves.

The country is seen taking advantage of cheap imports to meet its growing need for livestock feed, analysts and trade sources said. Wheat prices are down about 9 percent so far
this year.

Wet and cold weather in the U.S. crop belt is also delaying corn plantings, which could underpin the market.

"The biggest driver over the next two weeks is going to be weather developments and those weather developments at the moment look relatively supportive for grains and oilseeds,"
Mathews said.

The soybean market is being underpinned by strong nearby demand from processors and slow farmer sales of old-crop supplies.

Soybean spot basis bids rose sharply at processors and river terminals around the U.S. Midwest on Friday as rising futures and the strongest bids ever for this time of year failed to
entice farmer selling.

Still, large speculators cut their net long positions on CBOT corn and soybean futures, turning bearish on corn, as more supplies became available from Argentina and Brazil, according
to regulatory data released on Friday.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report showed that the noncommercial traders slashed their bullish bet on CBOT soybeans by 49.2
percent, giving them their smallest net long in the commodity since January 2012.

  Prices at 0304 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  MA 30   RSI
  CBOT wheat     708.25    -6.50  -0.91%   868.02   53
  CBOT corn      653.50    -5.00  -0.76%   763.69   41
  CBOT soy      1412.00    -1.00  -0.07%   1577.61   53
  CBOT rice      $15.78   -$0.04  -0.25%   $15.49   66
  WTI crude      $89.54   -$1.75  -1.92%   $88.97   24
  Currencies                                               
  Euro/dlr       $1.308   $0.079 
  USD/AUD         1.043   -0.012 
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential

(Editing by Himani Sarkar)

Corn Drops as U.S. Rains Help Rebuild Soil Moisture for Planting

By Luzi Ann Javier - Apr 15, 2013
Bloomberg
Corn declined after posting the biggest weekly gain in six as rain in parts of the U.S., the world’s largest grower, may replenish soil moisture needed for planting after drought cut last year’s harvest.

Corn for July delivery lost as much as 1 percent to $6.35 a bushel, ending last week’s 2 percent rally for the most-active contract, the biggest since the five days ended March 1. Futures were at $6.3625 by 10:33 a.m. in Singapore on volume that was 83 percent higher than the 100-day average for that time.

Snow and rain last week helped provide moisture in the driest areas of Iowa, Nebraska, southern Minnesota and South Dakota, Joel Burgio, an agricultural meteorologist at DTN, wrote in a report April 12. Farmers in the U.S. will probably plant 97.3 million acres of corn, the most since 1936, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said March 28. The harvest totaled 273.8 million metric tons in the year that began Sept. 1, the smallest since 2006-2007, the USDA said April 10.

“It’s just profit-taking” that’s pushing prices lower, Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager at Astmax Asset Management Inc. in Tokyo, said by phone today. “People should be focusing on weather conditions.”

Wheat for July delivery slipped 0.7 percent to $7.1475 a bushel, while soybeans fell 0.3 percent to $13.755 a bushel.

Soybean crushing by 12 companies in the Washington-based National Oilseed Processors Association, or NOPA, probably fell 2.1 percent to 137.645 million bushels in March from a year earlier, based on the average estimate of eight analysts in a Bloomberg survey. NOPA, which represents processors with 62 plants in 19 states, is due to release its estimates today.

In China, imports will probably fall to 58 million tons in the year beginning Oct. 1, from an estimated 59.2 million tons this year, according to a separate Bloomberg survey.

Supply glut, weak demand to pressure oilseeds market

G. CHANDRASEKHAR, THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
MUMBAI, APRIL 12:
The world oilseeds and oils market is facing a double whammy of a significant expansion in production coupled with slowing demand in major consuming markets. A massive 30 million tonnes (mt) increase in world soyabean production in 2012-13, contributed principally by major South American origins Brazil and Argentina, has put tremendous downward pressure on the prices of oilseeds and derivatives.

While the world oilseed market is in surplus driven particularly by soyabean, the demand environment is decidedly weak. Asian major China, the world’s largest importer and consumer of soyabean, is likely to import less than the initial projection of 63 mt. Many believe physical arrivals into China will at best be 59 mt this year. China’s throbbing livestock industry consumes humungous quantities of meal.

At the same time, European Union soyameal imports are turning weak. Far from showing signs of growth, protein consumption in the European region is set to fall. The final actual import figures could well be more than 10 per cent lower at 17-18 mt, from the initial projection of 20 mt. So, at the moment, physical surplus, harvest pressure and sheer weight of expanding inventory have combined to weigh down on prices. This is the underlying bear story for soyabean and by implication for the global oilseeds and oils market.

PALM OIL INVENTORIES

At the same time, palm oil production in two of the world’s top producers Indonesia and Malaysia continues to be good with a year-on-year expansion of close to 9 per cent. As palm oil production growth surpasses demand growth, global palm oil inventories will continue to rise this year, notwithstanding some inspired predictions otherwise.

Inventories at the two major importers of palm oil complete the picture. China’s port inventories are estimated at 1.2 mt (versus 0.9 mt this time last year) and worse, India’s stocks have burgeoned to about 2 mt, having risen by third from last year. A significant part of India’s excessive imports and stock build up in recent months was because of trade speculation over hike in customs duty on import. The speculation did not yield result.

SEASONAL FACTORS

More important, going forward, seasonal factors will come into play. Traditionally, the northern hemisphere summer season and particularly in Asia the summer months from May to July witness a seasonal decline in vegetable oil use. The saving grace this year will be the month-long Ramzan festival in July. So, the world is already awash with vegetable oils. An anticipated rebound in the US soyabean production this year will put further pressure on forward prices, subject to normal weather. Analysts assert that valuations are stretched on hopes of palm oil price recovery; but there is a risk that prices will be forced down given the market fundamentals.

Shanghai rebar falls over 3 pct as China data disappoints

Mon Apr 15, 2013
* China Q1 GDP up 7.7 pct, less than forecast

* Iron ore swaps decline, may weigh on spot prices
By Manolo Serapio Jr
SINGAPORE, April 15 (Reuters) - Shanghai steel futures dropped more than 3 percent on Monday in a broad-based sell-off of risky assets after China's economy grew less than expected in
the first quarter, suggesting weak demand in the world's top commodity consumer.

The weakness in steel prices knocked down iron ore swaps as investors bet on softer spot rates with Chinese demand for the steelmaking raw material likely to take a hit.

The most-traded rebar contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange touched a session low of 3,711 yuan ($600) a tonne, not far off a four-month low of 3,705
yuan hit in early April.

It stood at 3,716 yuan by 0532 GMT, down 3 percent.

China's economy grew at an annual rate of 7.7 percent in the first quarter, below market expectations for an 8.0 percent expansion and frustrating investors hoping the world's No. 2
economy would rebound after posting its weakest growth in 13 years in 2012.

"The data suggests that China's economic recovery is extremely weak, much slower than expected, while steel output remains at record levels, which will put downward pressure on
steel prices," said Qiu Yuecheng, an analyst with steel trading platform Xiben New Line Co Ltd in Shanghai.

China has been producing crude steel in excess of 2 million tonnes a day since February as mills in the world's biggest steel consumer and producer banked on demand that usually peaks
during the second quarter.

The Chinese data came after soft U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers raised doubts about the economic recovery momentum in the world's top economy, driving down
commodities and equities on Friday.

"Near term, commodities could remain under pressure because the two giants in Asia have shown that they are not doing that well, euro zone indicators are looking at a deepening recession
and U.S. greenshoots are not sprouting up at a spectacular rate either," said Vishnu Varathan, market economist at Mizuho Corporate Bank, also referring to weakness in the Indian
economy.

Iron ore swaps fell in sympathy with Chinese steel futures. The May contract traded as low as $134 a tonne after settling at $138.50 on Friday, while the June contract slipped to a trough of $129 from $133.37, traders said.

Benchmark 62-percent grade iron ore .IO62-CNI=SI was flat at $141 a tonne on Friday, according to data provider Steel Index, as buying interest tapered off.

Lower inventories of iron ore prodded Chinese steel mills to restock last week, helping prices gain nearly 4 percent for the week, the biggest such gain since early January.

But the restocking pace has been modest with mills limiting raw material stocks given a cautious outlook for steel demand.

  Shanghai rebar futures and iron ore indexes at 0532 GMT

  Contract                          Last    Change   Pct Change
  SHFE REBAR OCT3                   3716   -114.00        -2.98
  THE STEEL INDEX 62 PCT INDEX       141     +0.10        +0.07
  METAL BULLETIN INDEX            141.44     +0.03        +0.02

  Rebar in yuan/tonne
  Index in dollars/tonne, show close for the previous trading day

($1 = 6.1922 Chinese yuan)

(Additional reporting by Ruby Lian in Shanghai; Editing by Tom Hogue)

Indonesian Coal Prices Seen Rising on India’s Monsoon Demand

April 12, 2013
Bloomberg
Prices of power-station coal in Indonesia, the world’s biggest exporter of the fuel, may gain in coming weeks as Indian buyers step up purchases.   

India is likely to increase stockpiles for the monsoon season, which normally runs from June to September, according to three out of five traders in a Bloomberg New survey. Heavy rains can hamper shipments and reduce coal quality.   

Prices increased last week, according to the survey. Indonesian bituminous grade with a calorific value of 5,800 kilocalories a kilogram and as much as 2 percent sulfur, averaged $71.75 a metric ton in the week ended April 5, according to the median forecast of five traders surveyed by Bloomberg this week. It rose from $70 a ton in a week earlier.   

Indonesian sub-bituminous coal with a heating value of 4,500 kilocalories a kilogram and maximum 1 percent sulfur averaged $52 a ton in the same week, up from $48.68 previous week, according to the survey. Coal with a calorific value of 4,000 kilocalories a kilogram and 0.5 percent sulfur averaged $40 a ton, rising from $39.81 a ton in a week earlier, the survey showed.   

Power-station coal at the Australian port of Newcastle, the benchmark grade for Asia, fell $1.05 to $86.75 in the week ended April 5, according to IHS McCloskey, a Petersfield, England- based data provider.                      

Indonesian coal   

All Indonesian prices are on a gross-as-received and free- on-board basis at Kalimantan or Sumatra, Indonesia’s two main coal-producing regions. They represent cargoes loaded on Supramax vessels, which can carry about 50,000 tons. Actual prices may vary by grade, depending on moisture, ash and sulfur contents, loading point and rate.   

About 60 percent of Indonesia’s coal is classified as sub- bituminous. Higher moisture levels and a lower carbon content reduce sub-bit’s heating value compared with better quality stock. It has fewer than 6,100 kilocalories per kilogram, according to the Indonesian energy ministry. 

Bunker Prices : 15.04.2013